Weekend Preview: INSIDE OUT 2 Looks to Save the Summer Box Office

Courtesy of Disney/Pixar

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Week 24 | June 14 – 16, 2024
Top 10 Range | Weekend 24, 2024: $133M – $178M
Top 10 Total | Weekend 24, 2023: $163,783,549

Boxoffice Pro Podium

Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | June 14 – 16, 2024

1. Inside Out 2
Disney/Pixar | NEW
Weekend Range: $85 – $115M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 34%

Pros

  • Nine years ago, Pixar’s first Inside Out opened to $90.4 million domestically on 3,946 screens to take the top spot, and we expect Inside Out 2 to perform along the same level—or surpass—that performance. Both Paramount’s IF and Sony’s The Garfield Movie have shown strong holds recently, proving the family audience is ready for the right movie at the right time. IF and Garfield are several weeks into their run and pose little threat to Inside Out, and most school summer breaks will be in full swing—factors that will only help Inside Out 2 capture the national attention. There’s a clear runway for Disney/Pixar to open this one big and hold strong since there is only a sole competitor for this demo on the schedule when Universal/Illumination’s Despicable Me 4 arrives over the Fourth of July weekend. We’ve been banging the drum for the new Inside Out‘s potential to become the first $100 million opener of 2024. However, even if it opens at the low end of our range, it should still surpass this year’s monster openings of Dune: Part Two ($82.5M) and Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire ($80M) to become the biggest opening weekend of the year so far.
  • Pixar’s Elemental was released at this same time last year to a disappointing $29.6M take, spending the subsequent weeks fending off headlines calling it a bomb before showing resiliency at the box office. That film ultimately collected $154.4M domestically and $484.8M worldwide, even outperforming some of the studios’ pre-pandemic output like Cars 3 and The Good Dinosaur, proving there is still an audience for the magic Pixar weaves. Pixar’s best performers have been sequels and spin-offs, giving Inside Out 2 great potential to break out as the first sequel to the animation studio’s second-highest-performing original title at the box office. Fandango’s pre-sales are already reporting higher than the first Inside Out and the highest for Pixar since Toy Story 4—which opened to $120M.

Cons

  • The Pixar brand has struggled in the pandemic era, dating back to Onward‘s interrupted theatrical run in February 2020. Disney’s decision to drop Pixar’s following three well-reviewed features –Soul (95% RT), Luca (91% RT), and Turning Red (95% RT)- straight to Disney+ dulled the perception of Pixar from powerhouse animated hitmaker to just another corporate content silo. The Toy Story spin-off Lightyear got a theatrical bow in the summer of 2022 but disappointed with only $50.5M domestic/$218.7M WW. These five misfires and Elemental’s initial opening weekend struggles mean Pixar is no longer the bulletproof box office juggernaut of the 2010s. Inside Out 2 needs to open big and stay big for Pixar’s sake, and the viability of Disney animation as a whole, which has not had a major box office hit since 2019’s Frozen II and has seen rivals like Illumination and Dreamworks gain a significant foothold into their territory.

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Sony Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $28 – $35M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 16%

Pros

  • Bad Boys returns for its sophomore frame with no direct competition in the market, given that Bad Boys delivers R-rated action while Inside Out 2 is G-rated family-oriented. We expect a superb hold from this one in its second frame, especially with $6,217,847 million already on the books for Monday. As mentioned this past weekend, the return of Will Smith and Martin Lawrence as wisecracking buddy cops has won over audiences with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes audience score, 5-star PostTrak rating, and “A-” CinemaScore. That means word of mouth should override any hesitation from those standoffish about the movie during opening weekend.

Cons

  • While that $56.5M opening is terrific for 2024, it’s still below the $62.5M January opening of the last installment, Bad Boys for Life. Will the fourth film continue to perform in the shadow of others in the franchise? Let’s take a look at the second week holds of the previous three…
  • Bad Boys (1995) – $11,016,040 million 2nd frame (-29% drop)
  • Bad Boys II (2003) – $22,051,422 million 2nd frame (-53% drop)
  • Bad Boys for Life (2020) – $34,011,714 million 2nd frame (-46% drop)

3. The Garfield Movie
Sony Pictures | Week 4
Weekend Range: $4 – $6M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 8%

Pros

  • The big orange cat is still holding well, and while it is no longer the main choice for the family demo, its broad humor makes it a great preference for parents with smaller children looking to avoid the inevitable teary eyes coming out of a Pixar movie. Spillover from sold-out Inside Out 2 shows should add a little more mileage as well.

Cons

  • While families have been filing in for The Garfield Movie the last few weeks, Inside Out 2 is much closer to a four-quadrant movie, with many adults expected to arrive for the generally more sophisticated/broader reach of Pixar-style storytelling.

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Courtesy of Disney/Pixar
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