Long Range Forecast — February 20, 2026
I Can Only Imagine 2 | Lionsgate
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $25M
Lionsgate follows up their 2018 faith-based hit I Can Only Imagine with this sequel, starring Milo Ventimiglia as frontman for the band MercyMe as he faces additional challenges to his faith. The original I Can Only Imagine kicked off its $83.4M domestic run in mid-March with an opening of $17.1M, a debut gross that the sequel will likely surpass.
Both films are co-directed by Andrew Erwin, who with brother and producing partner Jon (co-director of the first film) have delivered some hits for Lionsgate in the inspirational biopic genre, among them 2023’s Jesus Revolution ($15.8M domestic opening, $52.1M domestic total), 2024’s Ordinary Angels ($6.1M domestic opening, $19.1M domestic total), and 2025’s The Unbreakable Boy ($2.3M domestic opening, $6.4M domestic total)—all released, like I Can Only Imagine 2, in the third weekend of February. Other comps include Lionsgate’s faith-based drama The Shack ($16.1M domestic opening, $57.3M domestic total), released in early March 2017, and February 2016’s Biblical drama Risen ($11.8M domestic opening, $36.8M domestic total), released by Sony.
How to Make a Killing | A24
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Glenn Powell stars in A24’s How to Make a Killing, a black comedy about a stifled heir looking to reclaim his inheritance. Powell should help the appeal of the film, but don’t expect blockbuster numbers from this February release. Previous February releases to combine action and comedy elements include (on the low end) 2025’s Love Hurts ($5.8M) and 2024’s Drive-Away Dolls ($2.4), the latter featuring How to Make a Killing co-star Margaret Qualley among its ensemble cast; and, on the high end, 2018’s Game Night ($17M), 2023’s Cocaine Bear ($23.2M), and 2024’s Argylle ($17.4M). Looking elsewhere in Q1, action/comedy combined with an up-and-coming lead actor in last March’s Novocaine, which opened to $8.8M en route to a $19.8M domestic total.
Tracking Updates [As Of 1/9/26]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 1/9 | Primate | $7M – $10M | Paramount |
| 1/9 | Greenland 2: Migration | $9M – $12M | Lionsgate |
| 1/9 | I Was a Stranger | $1M – $2M | Angel Studios |
| 1/16 | 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple | $18M – $25M | Sony |
| 1/23 | Mercy | $10M – $15M | Amazon/MGM |
| 1/23 | Clicka | $2M – $4M | Sony |
| 1/30 | Send Help | $12M – $18M | 20th Century Studios / Disney |
| 1/30 | Iron Lung | $15M – $25M | Independent |
| 1/30 | Melania | $1M – $2M | Amazon/MGM |
| 1/30 | Shelter | $4M – $7M | Black Bear |
| 1/30 | The Moment | $2M – $4M | A24 |
| 2/6 | Solo Mio | $5M – $8M | Angel Studios |
| 2/6 | The Strangers: Chapter 3 | $5M – $8M | Lionsgate |
| 2/13 | Wuthering Heights | $30M – $50M | Warner Bros. |
| 2/13 | GOAT | $20M – $30M | Sony |
| 2/13 | Crime 101 | $10M – $15M | Amazon/MGM |
| 2/13 | Scarlet | $1M – $2M | Sony/Crunchyroll |
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