Long Range Forecast — July 18, 2025
I Know What You Did Last Summer | Sony
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Following on the heels of the Scream reboot films, former teen idols Freddie Prinze Jr. and Jennifer Love Hewitt return to the legacy horror franchise I Know What You Did Last Summer in search of renewed interest from a younger generation—and nostalgia ties from older moviegoers.
Unlike the Scream franchise, which launched its two post-reboot films in Q1, Sony has opted for a more ambitious (if thematically appropriate) summer release corridor for I Know What You Did Last Summer. It’s a tactic that worked for ’90s horror reboot Final Destination: Bloodlines—which became the highest domestic grosser in the franchise after only six days in theaters—earlier this year, but Bloodlines‘ mid-May release date offered little in terms of competition, while I Know What You Did Last Summer is sandwiched between hopeful four-quadrant successes Superman (July 11) and The Fantastic Four: First Steps (July 25).
Our forecasting panel’s $15M – $20M opening weekend range puts I Know What You Did Last Summer far below Final Destination: Bloodlines ($51.6M), January 2022’s Scream ($30M), March 2023’s Scream VI ($44.4M), and fellow summer 2025 horror sequel 28 Years Later ($30M). A slight debut weekend overperformance would put I Know What You Did Last Summer in the realm of April 2023’s Evil Dead Rise ($24.5M) or August 2022’s Candyman ($22M), while a failure to reach $15M would put it in league with May 2024’s The Strangers: Chapter 1 ($11.8M), April 2024’s The First Omen ($8.3M), or May 2021’s Spiral ($8.7M).
Eddington | A24
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $3M – $5M
Ari Aster’s COVID-set Eddington was one of the most anticipated films of this year’s Cannes Film Festival—though initial reactions, which liken Aster’s latest more to his 2023 platform release Beau is Afraid than his mainstream horror hits Hereditary ($13.5M domestic opening) and Midsommar ($6.5M domestic opening), cast doubt on Eddington‘s ability to crack the top 5 in its opening weekend.
Our forecasting puts Eddington roughly in line with fellow dark comedy (and fellow A24 wide release) Death of a Unicorn, which bowed to $5.7M in late March of this year. Other subject matter comps include A24 dark comedy Friendship and the Joaquin Phoenix-starring He Won’t Get Far On Foot—however, both of those films opened in only a handful of theaters before expanding to a larger footprint in chase weeks, rendering them unhelpful when it comes to debut forecasting. So far in 2025, A24 has gone straight to a wide domestic release with June’s Materialists ($11.3M) , April’s Warfare ($8.3M), May’s Bring Her Back ($7.1M), and the aforementioned March release Death of a Unicorn ($5.7M).
Long Range Forecast — July 18, 2025
Smurfs | Paramount
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Smurfs is having a hard time standing out in a packed summer release slate. We’ll get a better idea of its landing spot as the marketing campaign heats up—but, in the meantime, Smurfs could benefit from the slow start of the previous month’s Elio, which gave Pixar its lowest wide debut with $20.8M. A slow start for Smurfs, meanwhile, could prove helpful for Universal’s The Bad Guys 2, out the first weekend of August; that film’s prequel, 2022’s The Bad Guys, opened to $23.9M in April and eventually topped out at $97.4M.
An opening on the low end of our $15M – $20M range would put Smurfs slightly ahead of 2021’s Paw Patrol: The Movie ($13.1M domestic opening, $40.1M domestic total), another August animated family title from Paramount; a few million more would put Smurfs in the neighborhood November 2021’s Clifford the Big Red Dog ($16.6M domestic opening, $48.9M domestic total), also a Paramount release based on a classic children’s property. Other recent reboots of legacy children’s IP include 2024’s The Garfield Movie ($24M domestic opening, $91.9M domestic total), 2024’s Transformers One ($24.6M domestic opening, $59M domestic total), and 2023’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem ($28M domestic opening, $118.7M domestic total).
Tracking Updates [as of July 11]
| 7/11 | Superman | $115 – $135M | Warner Bros. |
| 7/18 | I Know What You Did Last Summer | $10 – $15M | Sony |
| 7/18 | Eddington | $3 – $5M | Universal |
Share this post