Long Range Forecast: ‘The Infiltrator’ & ‘Ghostbusters’

Opening on Wednesday the 13th of July will be The Infiltrator, the crime drama from Broad Green Pictures. Then a couple days later on July 15th Sony / Columbia’s Ghostbusters will debut.  BoxOffice Pro is predicting a big win for Ghostbusters on the weekend despite the proliferation of negative online buzz, while relative newcomer Broad Green is going to have a hard time cracking the top 5 in all likelihood with its second wide release film ever.

Ghostbusters (Sony / Columbia)

PROS:

– Ghostbusters is one of the most iconic franchises of the 80s, not only through its two films but also the animated series and countless marketing tie-ins over the years.

– The Ghostbusters fan base is very passionate to say the least, just visit any comic con and you will see that it never left mainstream pop culture even after all these years.

– Ray Parker Jr.’s theme song for the franchise could very well also be the theme song for all of Generation X.

– With traditional blockbuster season in full swing, the all female cast (not to mention Chris Hemsworth) will attempt to open doors to an even wider demographic to fill seats.

– Social media has been abuzz about the film since its first trailer dropped and has made it one of the bright spots across both Twitter and Facebook in 2016 so far.

CONS:

– While its buzz levels have been huge, especially on Twitter, its sentiment has been the poorest of any 2016 release on the year so far. The largest single complaint has been the films re-imagining of the original (most notably by casting four women) which might alienate the existing fanbase.

– Aside from McCarthy there is no starpower to speak of which will mean it will have to rely on fans of the franchise. See above.

The Infiltrator (Broad Green Pictures)

PROS:

– Talented cast and intriguing plot could play very well with mature audiences looking for a change of pace from the high octane summer offerings.

CONS:

– This will be Broad Green’s second wide release ever which brings into question how strong and/or effective their marketing campaign will be.

– Buzz is pretty much zero for the film. Case in point is its verified Facebook page with under 5,000 likes that has been up for weeks. That’s the lowest by far of any film opening in the next three months in wide release.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Ghostbusters Jul 15, 2016 Sony / Columbia $63,000,000 $178,000,000
The Infiltrator Jul 13, 2016 Broad Green Pictures $6,000,000 $20,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets Jul 8, 2016 Universal $66,000,000 $265,000,000
Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates Jul 8, 2016 Fox $15,000,000 $40,000,000
The BFG Jul 1, 2016 Disney / DreamWorks $31,000,000* $85,000,000
The Legend of Tarzan Jul 1, 2016 Warner Bros. $23,500,000* $50,000,000
The Purge: Election Year Jul 1, 2016 Universal $21,000,000* $42,000,000
The Shallows Jun 29, 2016 Sony / Columbia $11,200,000* $28,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence Jun 24, 2016 Fox $68,000,000 $175,000,000
Free State of Jones Jun 24, 2016 STX Entertainment $11,500,000 $43,000,000
Finding Dory Jun 17, 2016 Disney $108,000,000 $390,000,000
Central Intelligence Jun 17, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $52,000,000 $155,000,000
The Conjuring 2 Jun 10, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $45,000,000 $105,000,000
Warcraft Jun 10, 2016 Universal $35,000,000 $78,000,000
Now You See Me 2 Jun 10, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $23,000,000 $65,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Jun 3, 2016 Paramount $53,000,000 $145,000,000
Me Before You Jun 3, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $15,000,000 $45,000,000
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Jun 3, 2016 Universal $10,000,000 $25,000,000
X-Men: Apocalypse May 27, 2016 Fox $95,000,000* $195,000,000
Alice Through the Looking Glass May 27, 2016 Disney $68,000,000* $170,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

Shawn Robbins, Jesse Rifkin and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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