Long Range Forecast: ‘Justice League,’ ‘The Star,’ & ‘Wonder’

The fifth installment of Warner Bros.’ DC Extended Universe serves as the natural highlight among this week’s latest additions to the Long Range Forecast. Justice League won’t fly solo when debuts on November 17, though, as The Star and Wonder are also set to open that weekend in hopes of counter-programming against the superhero tentpole.

PROS:

  • Justice League (Warner Bros.) will unite key heroes from the DC universe with the promise of Batman, Wonder Woman, The Flash, Aquaman, Cyborg, and (presumably) Superman joining forces in their first film as a collective group. The previous DC universe films have generated major financial success thus far, although only Wonder Woman has enjoyed both box office supremacy and critical + audience adoration. The latter’s goodwill — on top of the fact that Batman is still one of the most bankable icons in film history — could allow some audiences to give League the benefit of the doubt. Fans are also very curious about what kind of influence Joss Whedon (The Avengers) will have had on the finished product since Zack Snyder stepped down during production following a family tragedy.
  • The Star (Sony / Columbia) will serve as this holiday season’s Christmas-centric animation with an eye toward faith-based audiences and families with young children. Having five days to itself before Pixar’s Coco opens will help it get a head start for what should be a leggy run through November and December.
  • Wonder (Lionsgate) should find a strong female audience on opening weekend as the film aims to parlay Raquel J. Palacio’s beloved 2012 dramatic children’s novel into cinematic success. Initial social media buzz is very encouraging as the film boasts over 234,000 Facebook fans before marketing has truly kicked in. This could be a sleeper to keep an eye on, especially if awards buzz follows.

CONS:

  • It’s no secret that Batman v Superman was received poorly by many fans, and that will be Justice League‘s biggest obstacle to overcome as the spiritual sequel to that film. In addition, opening in the third weekend of Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok could present even more challenges since this is the shortest competitive window in which DC and Marvel tentpoles have attempted to compete within against each another. As such, reviews and early fan reactions will be crucial to Justice League‘s long term prospects.
  • The Star will ultimately be relying on word of mouth to manufacture a solid holiday run, something that could be moderately challenging with Coco opening five days later. Awareness is fairly low at this stage with little activity across Facebook and Twitter. As such, we’re expecting a run more in line with the likes of Arthur Christmas and Happy Feet Two at this time and some modest ability to co-exist with the Pixar film.
  • Wonder hasn’t generated much buzz among Twitter users recently, but that could easily change when marketing ramps up in early November.

This Week’s Notes & Other Changes

  • Recent marketing for The Mountain Between Us has livened up social media activity. Trends remain at about half the overall pace of last year’s The Girl on the Train, but Kate Winslet and Idris Elba should still provide solid appeal to adults.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
9/29/2017 American Made $16,000,000 $54,000,000 3,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $12,000,000 $29,000,000 2,200 Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a n/a Pure Flix
9/29/2017 Til Death Do Us Part n/a n/a n/a Novus
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 3,800 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $11,500,000 44% $36,000,000 44% 3,100 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 2,100 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 STXfilms
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Open Road
10/13/2017 Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 $27,800,000 Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $16,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 $12,000,000 Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 $31,000,000 Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 $59,300,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Jigsaw $10,000,000 $21,600,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Suburbicon $14,000,000 $45,000,000 Paramount
10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 $17,500,000 Universal
11/1/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $22,000,000 $85,000,000 STXfilms
11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $100,000,000 $250,000,000 Disney
11/10/2017 Daddy’s Home 2 $30,000,000 $95,000,000 Paramount
11/10/2017 Murder on the Orient Express $23,500,000 $84,600,000 Fox
11/17/2017 Justice League $150,000,000 NEW $330,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
11/17/2017 The Star $13,000,000 NEW $60,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
11/17/2017 Wonder $16,000,000 NEW $60,000,000 NEW Lionsgate

For media requests pertaining to our forecasts, please contact Shawn Robbins

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