Long Range Forecast: ‘Kidnap’ & ‘Incarnate’

The opening week of December this year is “the calm between the storms,” a relatively quiet weekend at the box office right after several major releases on Thanksgiving weekend and right before the onslaught of awards contenders and box office hits released during the rest of December. This year, Relativity Media opens their abduction thriller Kidnap and High Top Releasing debuts their horror film Incarnate.

Kidnap (Relativity Media)

PROS:

  • Oscar winner Halle Berry stars in this high-stakes thriller about a mild-mannered woman who turns on her inner rage in an attempt to recover her abducted son. Early trailers have looked intense and could provide a bit of counterprogramming for adult audiences.

CONS:

  • Berry’s brightest days at the box office were at least a decade ago. Her previous film was two and a half years ago, and even that was reprising her 15-year-old role as Storm in the time travel tale of X-Men: Days of Future Past. Can she still attract audiences to the theaters?
  • Films about kidnapped children are a difficult subject for audiences to watch. September’s The Light Between Oceans wasn’t expected to be a huge draw in the first place, but even that film about a lost child came in below many analysts’ expectations.
  • Adult counterprogramming can often be successful, but just the weekend before Kidnap‘s release will see the debut of Allied and Rules Don’t Apply, two dramas aimed at an adult audience. In this case, Kidnap could fall through the cracks.
  • Kidnap was originally scheduled for release all the way back in October 2015. A delay of more than a year before a film is released doesn’t usually portend greatness at the box office.

Incarnate (High Top Releasing)

PROS:

  • Aaron Eckhart stars as an exorcist who meets an 11-year-old boy possessed by a demon in this supernatural horror. The last wide release horror film will have been more than a month before, the weekend before Halloween. Fans of the genre might be looking for something to whet their horror appetites around this time.
  • Eckhart has had box office success with everything from 2008’s The Dark Knight to 2013’s Olympus Has Fallen to September’s Sully.

CONS:

  • Buzz online is virtually nonexistent, with the main trailer notching less than half a million views on YouTube as of this writing.
  • WWE Films is a co-producer and they have never had a true box office hit in their several-years-old existence.
  • Horror films released in December don’t have the best track record at the box office, with other months — especially summer and October as Halloween approaches — generally performing much better.

Check out the official Boxoffice Pro long range forecasts in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Incarnate Dec 2, 2016 High Top Releasing $4,500,000 $9,000,000
Kidnap Dec 2, 2016 Relativity Media $7,000,000 $19,000,000
Moana Nov 23, 2016 Disney $65,000,000 $285,000,000
Allied Nov 23, 2016 Paramount $14,000,000 $68,000,000
Bad Santa 2 Nov 23, 2016 Broad Green Pictures $10,000,000 $34,000,000
Rules Don’t Apply Nov 23, 2016 Fox $5,000,000 $19,000,000
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Nov 18, 2016 Warner Bros. $78,000,000 $210,000,000
The Edge of Seventeen Nov 18, 2016 STX Entertainment $13,000,000 $58,000,000
Bleed For This Nov 18, 2016 Open Road Films $6,500,000 $18,000,000
Friend Request Nov 18, 2016 Freestyle Releasing $2,500,000 $5,000,000
Arrival Nov 11, 2016 Paramount $27,000,000 $95,000,000
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk Nov 11, 2016 Sony / TriStar $22,000,000 $103,000,000
Almost Christmas Nov 11, 2016 Universal $16,500,000 $46,000,000
Shut In Nov 11, 2016 EuropaCorp $5,500,000 $13,000,000
Doctor Strange Nov 4, 2016 Disney $88,000,000 $255,000,000
Trolls Nov 4, 2016 Fox / Dreamworks $28,000,000 $92,000,000
Hacksaw Ridge Nov 4, 2016 Lionsgate $11,000,000 $37,000,000
Inferno Oct 28, 2016 Sony $36,000,000 $100,000,000
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back Oct 21, 2016 Paramount $23,000,000 $65,000,000
Ouija: Origin of Evil Oct 21, 2016 Universal $12,000,000 $29,000,000
Keeping Up with the Joneses Oct 21, 2016 Fox $10,000,000 $29,000,000
Boo! A Madea Halloween Oct 21, 2016 Lionsgate $18,000,000 $46,000,000
I’m Not Ashamed Oct 21, 2016 Pure Flix $4,500,000 $17,000,000
The Accountant Oct 14, 2016 Warner Bros. $17,000,000 $58,000,000
Kevin Hart: What Now? Oct 14, 2016 Universal $13,500,000 $33,000,000
Max Steel Oct 14, 2016 Open Road Films $4,500,000 $10,000,000
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