Long Range Forecast — October 3, 2025
The Smashing Machine | A24
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $6M – $10M
Benny Safdie directs Dwayne Johnson in this combat sports biopic, which will rely on the strength of reviews and word of mouth to find a wider audience. The role marks a departure for Johnson, whose acting career over the last five years has been defined by family-oriented Disney projects (Jungle Cruise, Moana 2), Warner Bros.’ since-rebooted DC Comics series (Black Adam, DC League of Super-Pets), and Netflix actioners (Red Notice, Red One).
Together with brother Josh, whose own solo effort Marty Supreme is dated for this Christmas, Benny Safdie previously directed A24 releases Good Time, which made $2M in a theatrical run that topped out on 721 screens, and Uncut Gems, which made $9.5M upon expanding to wide release in December 2019. A24 has previously ventured into the world of the art house sports drama with Sean Durkin’s The Iron Claw, which debuted to $4.8M in December 2023 en route to a $35M domestic total; the studio’s only other major October release from the 2020s has been the platformer We Live in Time, which made $4.8M upon its expansion to wide release. Recent non-A24 dramas about combat sports include 2023’s Creed III ($58.3M domestic opening) and 2024’s The Fire Inside ($1.9M).
Long Range Forecast — October 10, 2025
Roofman | Paramount
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Writer-director Derek Cianfrance brings us this crime drama starring Channing Tatum, Kirsten Dunst, Ben Mendelsohn, and Peter Dinklage. The film is a biopic of a criminal who would pull off heists by accessing his targets via the roof; after escaping from prison, he would esacpe from his hideout (a Toys “R” Us) to become an established part of the local community.
Roofman looks to have a more commercial angle than Cianfrance’s previous films, a list that includes wide release The Light Between Oceans ($4.7M domestic opening) and platform release The Place Beyond the Pines, which made $4.9M upon expanding to ~1,500 theaters in its fourth week of release. Based on marketing materials, Roofman also has something of a more dramatic bent than previous films in the niche “crime films set in Charlotte, NC” subgenre: 2016’s Masterminds ($6.5M) and 2017’s Logan Lucky ($7.6M). The latter also features Tatum, whose other recent films include suspense thriller Blink Twice ($7.3M), historical romcom Fly Me to the Moon ($9.4M), and drama Dog ($14.8M), which he also co-directed.
Long Range Forecast — October 10, 2025
Tron: Ares | Disney
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $30M – $40M
Fifteen years after the release of Tron: Legacy, the Tron series continues with Tron: Ares, starring Jared Leto and directed by Joachim Rønning. Our forecasting predicts that Ares will have a smaller turnout than Legacy, which opened to $44M en route to a $172M domestic total in 2010. Still, we remain optimistic that PLF can carry Ares to a decent box office performance, especially if IMAX releases from the previous two weeks—Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another from Warner Bros. (9/26) and Disney’s re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water (10/3)—fail to catch on with general audiences.
The debut of Tron: Ares occupies the same October weekend that previously saw the release of fellow sci-fi, PLF-friendly films Gemini Man ($20.5M domestic opening) and Blade Runner 2049 ($32.7M), the latter of which featured Leto in a supporting role. The first half of October also served as the launching point for Sony’s Venom trilogy: Venom ($80.2M), Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($90M), and Venom: The Last Dance ($51M). Prior to Ares, Leto’s most recent starring role was in Venom‘s franchise-mate Morbius, which opened to $39M in April 2022 and tanked in subsequent weeks.
Long Range Forecast — October 10, 2025
Soul on Fire | Sony
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $4M – $8M
The latest faith-based title from Sony’s Affirm Films should provide a comfortable counter-programming option for the early Fall. Affirm’s highest opening to-date belongs to 2016’s Miracles From Heaven ($14.8M), out in March 2016. Other autumn releases from Affirm include 2011’s Courageous ($9.1M), 2019’s Overcomer ($8.1M), and last August’s The Forge ($6.6M). Not distributed by Affirm but helmed by Soul on Fire director Sean McNamara is fellow biopic Reagan, released in August 2024 to $7.6M.
Tracking Updates [as of September 5]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 9/5 | The Conjuring: Last Rites | $40M – $50M | Warner Bros. |
| 9/5 | Hamilton | $3M – $5M | Disney |
| 9/12 | The Long Walk | $10M – $15M | Lionsgate |
| 9/12 | Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale | $18M – $25M | Focus Features / Universal |
| 9/12 | Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Infinity Castle | $40M – $50M | Crunchyroll / Sony |
| 9/12 | Spinal Tap II: The End Continues | $4M – $6M | Bleecker Street |
| 9/19 | A Big Bold Beautiful Journey | $10M – $15M | Sony |
| 9/19 | HIM | $15M – $20M | Universal |
| 9/19 | The Senior | $2M – $4M | Angel Studios |
| 9/26 | The Strangers: Chapter 2 | $8M – $12M | Lionsgate |
| 9/26 | One Battle After Another | $15M – $20M | Warner Bros. |
| 9/26 | Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie | $15M – $20M | Universal |
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