Long Range Forecast: ‘All Saints,’ ‘Birth of the Dragon,’ & ‘Polaroid’ Set to Finish August; ‘Spider-Man’ & ‘Apes’ Benefit from Strong Early Reviews

The final weekend of August — and penultimate frame of Summer 2017 — is currently slated to see five wide releases hit the market. Our initial analysis and forecast:


  • All Saints (Sony/Columbia) marks the latest faith-based film to aim for pre-Labor Day success, a strategy employed very successfully with 2015’s War Room.
  • Birth of the Dragon (BH Tilt) could appeal to fans of Bruce Lee as it traces the young martial artist’s early days.
  • Polaroid (TWC / Dimension) boasts a concept similar to that of The Ring and other horror entries. Its best potential will be among teenagers.


  • All Saints isn’t generating the kind of social media engagement as the more successful faith-based films have in recent years.
  • Birth of the Dragon‘s distributor has a limited box office history, which indicates some challenges ahead with wide marketing reach.
  • Polaroid seems to revisit a horror plot device that fans of the genre are burned out on (see the performance of Rings earlier this year). Landing in between Annabelle: Creation and September’s It won’t help, either.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • A strong wave of critical reviews has boosted confidence in War for the Planet for the Apes. It still has a tougher market to face than its two predecessors, but nevertheless seems poised for success.
  • A lack of marketing reach and muted social media buzz continue to temper our expectations for Wish Upon.
  • Buzz for Dunkirk is heating up at a steady rate, which should continue over the next few weeks for Christopher Nolan’s latest original film. We’ve lowered our opening weekend expectation (for now) due mainly to the competitive market it will be entering since both Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming are generating ecstatic early reactions. We still expect Dunkirk to play the long game, though.
  • As noted, five films are scheduled to release on August 25, but we’re omitting Crown Heights (Amazon Studios/IFC Films) and Tulip Fever (Weinstein Company) until traditional wide release strategies are confirmed for the two films — neither of which have generated enough awareness or online engagement at this point to justify a wide release box office forecast.

The Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
7/7/2017 Spider-Man: Homecoming $125,000,000 $301,000,000 4,000 Sony / Columbia
7/14/2017 The Big Sick (Wide Exp) n/a n/a n/a Lionsgate
7/14/2017 War for the Planet of the Apes $60,000,000 11% $165,000,000 10% 3,900 Fox
7/14/2017 Wish Upon $8,500,000 -15% $19,500,000 -15% 2,500 Broad Green Pictures
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $57,500,000 -4% $240,000,000 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $17,000,000 $60,000,000 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $24,000,000 $70,000,000 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $27,000,000 $95,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 $107,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $5,000,000 $12,000,000 Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 NEW $12,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 NEW $5,500,000 NEW BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Crown Heights n/a NEW n/a NEW Amazon Studio / IFC Films
8/25/2017 Polaroid $9,000,000 NEW $23,500,000 NEW TWC / Dimension
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a NEW n/a NEW Weinstein Company

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.