Long Range Forecast: SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3 and Disney’s MUFASA Go Head-to-Head

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Long Range Forecast — December 20, 2024

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 | Paramount Pictures

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $65M – $85M

Opening the same day as Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King is the third film in Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog series—a reliable franchise that in past installments has proven robust among both children and older fans. The return of Jim Carrey and key cast gives encouragement for another solid run, this time buoyed by holiday staying power.

Paramount’s first Sonic movie was one of the (few) highlights of 2020, opening to $58M on February 14—mere weeks before the global cinema industry was forced to shut down—and eventually topping out at $148.9M, making it the third-highest domestic earner of that year. In April of 2022, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($190.8M domestic total) opened to $72.1M, putting it roughly in line with our forecasting predictions for the third Sonic movie. If Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s late December release date subjects it to increased competition, particularly when it comes to family programming—there’s the aforementioned Mufasa, plus chase weeks for Moana 2—it should also set the film up for a strong holdover performance during Q1 2025. With last week’s announcement that Sony is moving Paddington in Peru from mid-January to Valentine’s Day, the first few weeks of 2025 look particularly bare in terms of kid’s movies, with nothing hitting theaters in wide release until Sony’s Dog Man on January 31.

Timing isn’t the only thing Sonic the Hedgehog 3 has going for it. The series has been successful at converting fans of the Sonic video games (and other media) into ticket-buyers, making it a prime example of how video game adaptations can have a strong pull among nostalgic Gen Xers who grew up with the source material and Gen Zers who have grown up with the movies. This time around, much of the advance social buzz involves the introduction of fan favorite character Shadow, voiced by Keanu Reeves.

Tracking Updates [as of 12/7]