August is set to start this year with the much anticipated comic book adaptation from Warner Bros. ‘Suicide Squad.’ In its wake Weinstein Company will debut its McDonald’s biographic film The Founder while EuropaCorp will try its hand at the body-switching genre with Nine Lives.
Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.)
– A strong recognizable cast top-lined by Will Smith who is about as experienced as it gets for summer blockbuster hits.
– Social media has been electric for the release, both Twitter and Facebook. It has been in the top 10 weekly Twitter charts every week of 2016 so far and is one of only two films (the other being Avengers: Age Of Ultron) to see two separate trailers generate over 200,000 tweets in a single day.
– Sequels have had trouble at times this summer living up to previous expectations. Suicide Squad is a net new film property which, though based off of popular comic characters, is a very different type of superhero film. Walking partially in the tracks started by Deadpool it focuses on anti-heroes and villains which should prove to be a refreshing deviation from the numerous comic adaptations that have come before it.
– Arguably the most famous villain ever is The Joker, and this film will mark his first return to the screen since the late Heath Ledger’s Oscar-winning performance in The Dark Knight. Jared Leto’s performance is already drawing a lot of attention to the film in and of itself and is yet another reason for its huge social media footprint.
– Aside from The Joker and arguably Harley Quinn, many of the characters in the film are not household names which could limit its overall reach.
– The fact that the film pushed for a PG-13 rating could work against Warner Bros. in the long run, since this will severely limit the type of carnage and gruesome acts that can be portrayed. This effectively pulled out much of the teeth the film could potentially have had, especially in light of how effective Deadpool was at offering an adult comic adaptation without sacrificing box office revenue.
The Founder (Weinstein Company)
– Michael Keaton has seen a resurgence of late in his career after his Oscar nomination for Birdman and critically acclaimed role in Oscar best picture winner Spotlight. Both saw significant success, especially with older demographics.
– Director John Lee Hancock has been very successful at crafting memorable and successful films from simple beginnings. His last two films The Blind Side and Saving Mr. Banks were both wildly profitable.
– The target audience here is pretty narrow (mainly the 35+ crowd) and highly influenced by reviews. If early word is not strong it could open with a whimper.
– Biopic films can often be hit or miss, for example just look at Steve Jobs last year which had arguably even more going for it, including very stellar reviews and critical buzz and managed just $17 million domestically.
Nine Lives (EuropaCorp)
– The talking animal sub-genre has been very successful with the family demographic in recent years thanks to the advancement in computer-generated imagery (CGI).
– Kevin Spacey, Jennifer Garner and Christopher Walken are all very established and recognized actors which will help the film’s visibility.
– Few live action films will slated for a wide PG release, and this could tap into the family demographic and surprise.
– Social media has been very muted so far. Understandable in some respects as often family films fly under the radar but with a Facebook like number of under 15,000 this indicates poor awareness across the board.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Suicide Squad||Aug 5, 2016||Warner Bros.||$98,000,000||$275,000,000|
|The Founder||Aug 5, 2016||Weinstein Company||$8,500,000||$32,000,000|
|Nine Lives||Aug 5, 2016||EuropaCorp||$9,000,000||$33,000,000|
|Jason Bourne||Jul 29, 2016||Universal||$65,000,000||$195,000,000|
|Bad Moms||Jul 29, 2016||STX Entertainment||$21,000,000||$70,000,000|
|Nerve||Jul 27, 2016||Lionsgate||$7,500,000||$20,000,000|
|Star Trek Beyond||Jul 22, 2016||Paramount||$56,000,000||$159,000,000|
|Ice Age: Collision Course||Jul 22, 2016||Fox||$39,000,000||$133,000,000|
|Lights Out||Jul 22, 2016||Warner Bros.||$10,000,000||$25,000,000|
|Ghostbusters||Jul 15, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$63,000,000||$178,000,000|
|The Infiltrator||Jul 13, 2016||Broad Green Pictures||$6,000,000||$20,000,000|
|The Secret Life of Pets||Jul 8, 2016||Universal||$66,000,000||$265,000,000|
|Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates||Jul 8, 2016||Fox||$12,000,000||$32,000,000|
|The BFG||Jul 1, 2016||Disney / DreamWorks||$31,000,000*||$85,000,000|
|The Legend of Tarzan||Jul 1, 2016||Warner Bros.||$23,500,000*||$50,000,000|
|The Purge: Election Year||Jul 1, 2016||Universal||$21,000,000*||$42,000,000|
|The Shallows||Jun 29, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$11,200,000*||$28,000,000|
|Independence Day: Resurgence||Jun 24, 2016||Fox||$47,000,000||$125,000,000|
|Free State of Jones||Jun 24, 2016||STX Entertainment||$14,000,000||$50,000,000|
|Finding Dory||Jun 17, 2016||Disney||$133,000,000||$449,000,000|
|Central Intelligence||Jun 17, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$35,000,000||$108,000,000|
* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.
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