Long Range Forecast: THE LEGEND OF OCHI, THE ACCOUNTANT 2, UNTIL DAWN Close Out a Quiet April

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Long Range Forecast — April 25, 2025

The Legend of Ochi | A24

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $6M – $10M

April comes to a close with a varied trio of releases—the first, The Legend of Ochi, a family-skewing title from A24 that draws on fantasy and adventure elements. With no direct competition in its vicinity, it could be a solid contender in its release window. As a film based on an original concept a debut writer/director (Isaiah Saxon), Ochi will have to rely on marketing and word-of-mouth to drum up awareness—particularly given that PG-rated family titles are not exactly the norm for A24, which is best known for horror titles and awards contenders.

In terms of comps, non-animated, family-targeted PG movies have been relatively thin on the ground over the last decade, with the exception of Disney’s run of high-profile, heavily-marketed remakes—the latest of which, Disney’s Snow White, failed to meet the lowest end of our opening forecasting range. This lack of recent non-franchise, live-action children’s fare could serve as a plus for Ochi if A24 can capitalize on parents’ nostalgia for some of the older titles they grew up with. Among newer films, Relativity Media’s Earth to Echo–about a group of kids who find and befriend a robot alien—opened to $8.3M during a crowded summer 2014, topping out at $38.9M. Two years later, Paramount released Monster Trucks ($33.3M domestic total)—about a teenage boy who befriends an oil-guzzling monster who lives inside a truck—to $10.9M in mid-January.

The Accountant 2 | Amazon/MGM

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $30M – $40M

Director Gavin O’Connor is back for the sequel to The Accountant, with stars Ben Affleck and Jon Bernthal returning as a math savant-turned-assassin and his assassin brother, respectively. The first movie, released by Warner Bros. in October 2016, opened to $24.7M and rode moderate drops to a domestic total of $86.2M.

In terms of comps, Affleck also co-starred in the 2023 sports/business drama Air ($14.4M domestic opening, $52.4M domestic total), like The Accountant 2 an April Amazon/MGM release and a bona fide Dad Movie™. Other recent crime thriller sequels aimed at an adult male audience include 2016’s Jack Reacher: Never Go Back ($22.8M domestic opening, $58.6M domestic total); 2014’s Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit ($15.4M domestic opening, $50.5M domestic total); 2018’s Sicario: Day of the Soldado ($19M domestic opening, $50M domestic total); and, from January of this year, Den of Thieves: Pantera ($15M domestic opening, $36M domestic total).

Until Dawn | Sony

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $8M – $12M

Directed by Shazam! and Shazam! Fury of the Gods‘ David F. Sandberg, this adaptation of the 2015 horror game of the same name looks to complement the Spring slate, though a lack of marketing could seriously hinder its box office performance.

Sandberg has experience in the horror genre, having previously helmed 2017’s Annabelle: Creation ($35M domestic opening, $102M domestic total) and 2016’s Lights Out ($21.6M domestic opening, $67.2M domestic total). Our forecasting for Until Dawn is more modest, partly because of the string of horror releases hitting theaters both in the weeks immediately before (The Woman in the Yard, Drop, Sinners) and immediately after (Final Destination: Bloodlines) its debut.

As a horror video game adaptation, Until Dawn lacks the high anticipation level enjoyed by Five Nights at Freddy’s ($80M domestic opening, $137.2M domestic total) in the weeks leading up to its release. Though horror video game adaptations have a long history at the box office—Sony/Screen Gems’ Resident Evil was for many years the most commercially successful video game movie franchise—the genre has (with the exception of FNAF) lost steam as of late, with the two most recent Resident Evil movies (2021’s Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City; $5.3M domestic opening, $17M domestic total and 2017’s Resident Evil: The Final Chapter; $13.6M domestic opening, $26.8M domestic total) underperforming compared to the rest of the franchise.

Tracking Updates [as of March 28]