Long Range Forecast: A WORKING MAN, THE WOMAN IN THE YARD, DEATH OF A UNICORN Close Out March

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Long Range Forecast — March 28, 2025

A Working Man | Amazon/MGM

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $20M

Director David Ayer and star Jaston Statham reunite for Amazon/MGM’s A Working Man, a blue-collar revenge action flick that looks similar to—and should perform in line with—their first collaboration, last year’s The Beekeeper ($16.5M domestic opening, $66.2M domestic total), also released by Amazon/MGM. That film opened in the second weekend in January, a frame that this year was claimed by Liongate action sequel Den of Thieves: Pantera ($15M domestic opening, $36M domestic total). In March 2023, Statham was in theaters with Guy Ritchie’s Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre ($3.1M domestic opening), which limped out of cinemas after three weeks with a $6.4M domestic haul.

The Woman in the Yard | Universal

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $15M

Initially scheduled for a theatrical release over MLK weekend—a frame that ended up being dominated by aforementioned actioner Den of Thieves: Pantera ($15M domestic opening, $36M domestic total)—The Woman in the Yard is the second 2025 release for Blumhouse, whose Wolf Man opened well below expectations to $10.8M domestic opening in mid-January ($20.7M domestic total). Without the hook of a classic Universal monster to aid marketing, predictions for The Woman in the Yard are more modest than they were for Wolf Man—which it very well may end up out-performing, at least on their respective opening weekends. Universal also released two Blumhouse titles in Q1 of last year: January’s Night Swim ($11.7M domestic opening, $32.4M domestic total) and March’s Imaginary ($9.9M domestic opening, $28M domestic total).

Death of a Unicorn | A24

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $15M

Alex Scharfman makes his feature directorial debut with Death of a Unicorn, about a father-daughter duo (Paul Rudd, Jenna Ortega) that hits a unicorn with their car, then brings the corpse to the estate of a pharmaceutical CEO who looks to profit from the gruesome accident. Reviews out of SXSW—where Death of a Unicorn is set to premiere on March 8—will help refine forecasting for this offbeat comedy, which ideally will capitalize on the cross-generational celebrity of its two leads to serve as a solid counter-programmer to Disney’s Snow White, out the prior weekend. For now, our opening weekend range for Death of a Unicorn is higher than that of mid-March release Opus, another dark comedy starring an it-girl actress (Ayo Edibiri) and released by A24.

Tracking Updates [as of February 28]