Long Range Forecast: WICKED: FOR GOOD On Pace to Surpass WICKED: PART ONE’s Debut Weekend

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Long Range Forecast — November 21, 2025

Wicked: For Good | Universal

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $130M – $155M

The blockbuster success of the first installment in this Broadway adaptation has our forecasting panel confident on the commercial prospects of Wicked: For Good, which occupies the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend as its predecessor and is poised to out-earn it in opening weekend grosses.

Wicked: For Good currently holds Fandango’s record for best first-day ticket pre-seller of 2025, surpassing Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl, and Superman. The musical sequel also ranks among Fandango’s top 10 best all-time first-day ticket pre-sellers, a list that also includes Avengers: Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour. Wicked: For Good is the highest first-day pre-seller for Fandango among PG-rated films, surpassing such box office heavyweights as Frozen, The Lion King (2019), and K-Pop Demon Hunters: Sing-Along Event.

Said Fandango EVP Jerramy Hainline in a statement on Wicked: For Good‘s pre-sales success, “The first film became a true cultural phenomenon bringing new generations into the world of Wicked, and it’s clear that fans can’t wait to see how the story continues on the big screen.” Wicked: Part One opened to $112.5M in November 2024, giving it the fourth highest opening weekend of the year, trailing Deadpool & Wolverine ($211.4M), Inside Out ($154.2M), and Moana 2 ($139.7M). It proceeded to hold strong over the holiday period, dropping just shy of -28% between its debut weekend and its Thanksgiving sophomore frame and holding in the top ten through MLK Day weekend 2025. The film subsequently secured the record for Peacock’s most-watched Pay 1 film (ie film not appearing on any other streaming services) in its first week of streaming in March 2025; a theatrical re-release on November 14, one week before Wicked: For Good‘s debut, should help drum up advance interest in the sequel.

A domestic opening between $130M – $155M would put Wicked: For Good in the range of 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water ($135.M domestic opening), like Wicked: For Good a blockbuster sequel with a high-profile holiday corridor release date. (The Way of Water‘s own sequel, Avatar: Fire and Ash, opens in theaters approximately one month after Wicked: For Good.) Other genre sequels to debut the weekend before Thanksgiving include 2019’s Frozen 2 ($130.2M domestic opening), 2017’s Justice League ($93.8M), and 2015’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 ($102.6M).

Tracking Updates [as of October 17]