Long Range Tracking: Aladdin

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This week’s report takes an early look at Memorial Day Weekend 2019, typically one of the biggest moviegoing periods of the year. Specifically, we’re offering up initial forecasts for the holiday’s headline release: a live action remake of 1992’s Aladdin. Will the film capture nostalgic Gen Xers and Millennials en route to another blockbuster winner for the Mouse House?

Aladdin
Opening Weekend Range: $70 – 95 million (3-day) / $85 – $115 million (4-day)

PROS:

  • The original 1992 film was the top earning release of its box office year, earning $217.4 million — which equals more than $473 million when adjusted for 2019 ticket prices.
  • As an Oscar-winning animated classic from Disney’s previous golden age, the original film remains beloved by audiences who grew up on the film and younger families who have since been introduced to it.
  • Fans will be particularly excited by the prospect of Oscar-winning composer Alan Menken returning for this remake, as well as director Guy Ritchie (Sherlock Holmes) and writer John August (Big Fish).
  • Casting Will Smith in the high profile role of Genie provides a notable high-profile star name to help attract moviegoers of various ages. Robin Williams famously brought the role to animated life, earning a number of awards and nominations for his work.
  • Opening two weeks after Pokemon: Detective Pikachu should give it enough breathing room to attract a strong family audience over the long Memorial Day weekend.
  • Trailer Impact metrics eight weeks out are very positive at 83 percent average positive interest, besting the 72 percent of Dumbo at the same point before release.
  • Global performance will be a key factor in this film’s bottom line, somewhat decreasing pressure on its domestic run to meet high-end expectations.

CONS:

  • Although reactions to other elements of the trailers have been generally positive, the backlash toward a heavily CG version of Genie drastically shifted the buzz narrative in recent weeks. Due to this, reviews and early word of mouth may be crucial to the film’s opening and long-term performance — meaning box office forecasts are volatile for now.
  • For all their recent successes, Disney has an uncanny history of box office under-performances with their Memorial Day releases over the past decade.
  • Though the film will earn the lion’s share of its money around the holiday and into its second weekend, opening just two weeks before The Secret Life of Pets 2 could result in significant overlap with that film’s own target family audience.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/5/2019 The Best of Enemies $7,500,000 -25% $25,000,000 -17% 1,600 STX
4/5/2019 Pet Sematary (2019) $28,000,000   $66,000,000   3,400 Paramount
4/5/2019 Shazam! $52,000,000 4% $165,000,000   4,100 Warner Bros.
4/12/2019 After (2019) $3,400,000 NEW $6,900,000 NEW 2,000 Aviron
4/12/2019 Hellboy (2019) $17,000,000 6% $36,000,000 6% 3,300 Lionsgate / Summit
4/12/2019 Little $15,000,000   $43,000,000   3,000 Universal
4/12/2019 Missing Link $11,000,000 10% $42,000,000 8% 2,900 Annapurna Pictures
4/17/2019 Breakthrough $13,500,000 -10% $52,000,000 -7% Fox
4/17/2019 Penguins $4,500,000   $17,500,000   Disney / Disneynature
4/19/2019 The Curse of La Llorona $20,000,000   $45,000,000   Warner Bros. (New Line)
4/26/2019 Avengers: Endgame $265,000,000   $645,000,000   Disney / Marvel
5/3/2019 The Intruder $14,500,000   $40,000,000   Sony / Columbia
5/3/2019 Long Shot $16,000,000   $60,000,000   Lionsgate / Summit
5/3/2019 Uglydolls $8,000,000   $27,000,000   STX
5/10/2019 All Is True n/a   n/a     Sony Classics
5/10/2019 Detective Pikachu $90,000,000   $250,000,000   Warner Bros.
5/10/2019 The Hustle $12,500,000   $35,000,000   Mirror Films / MGM
5/10/2019 Poms $12,500,000   $45,000,000   STX
5/10/2019 The Rosie Project n/a   n/a   TriStar
5/17/2019 A Dog’s Journey $11,000,000   $39,500,000   Sony / Columbia
5/17/2019 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum $35,000,000   $100,000,000   Lionsgate / Summit
5/17/2019 The Sun Is Also a Star $12,000,000   $36,000,000   Warner Bros.
5/24/2019 Ad Astra n/a   n/a   Fox
5/24/2019 Aladdin $85,000,000 NEW $235,000,000 NEW Disney
5/24/2019 Booksmart n/a   n/a   Annapurna Pictures
5/24/2019 BrightBurn n/a   n/a   Sony / Columbia

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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