Long Range Tracking: Breakthrough, Penguins, & The Curse of La Llorona

This week’s report takes a first look at a trio of releases slated to open in time for Easter weekend this April.

Breakthrough
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 20 million (3-Day)

PROS:

  • Faith-based audiences that have driven recent successes in the genre — such as last year’s breakout I Can Only Imagine — are expected to turn out in healthy numbers.
  • Star Chrissy Metz brings with her some of the fan base of This Is Us, which has become one of the most successful television dramas in recent years. Similarly, producer DeVon Franklin has plenty of experience delivering hit films for Christian audiences throughout his involvement with Miracles from Heaven and Heaven Is for Real.
  • Opening on Wednesday ahead of Easter weekend should provide ample opportunity for the film to generate word of mouth among churchgoers leading into the holiday weekend.

CONS:

  • I Can Only Imagine being an exception last spring, the faith-based genre hasn’t been churning out box office hits on quite the same level as it was in the early-to-mid 2010s.

Penguins
Opening Weekend Range: $4 – 8 million (3-Day)

PROS:

  • Disneynature’s latest documentary timed for Earth Day (Monday, April 22) should appeal well to families and fans of the series.
  • In general, Disneynature titles have proven fairly consistent at the box office across their seven previous entries dating back to 2009.

CONS:

  • Although generally successful on their own terms, Disneynature titles haven’t exceeded the $20 million domestic mark since 2012’s Chimpanzee.

The Curse of La Llorona
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

PROS:

  • Supernatural horror is hotter than ever at the box office, and early trailer reactions indicate this could be another micro-budget success for the genre. Advertised “from the producers of The Conjuring Universe” could boost interest.
  • Opening over Easter weekend is an intriguing play at attracting viewers beyond Friday night. Latinx moviegoers will be of particular importance to the film’s potential.

CONS:

  • If Pet Sematary breaks out two weeks earlier, it could soften demand for another horror entry.
  • Reviews will be key to opening and long-term success given its proximity to the summer corridor.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/1/2019 Greta n/a n/a 2,000 Focus Features
3/1/2019 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $23,000,000 $58,000,000 2,350 Lionsgate
3/8/2019 Captain Marvel $160,000,000 $450,000,000 2% 4,200 Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019 Five Feet Apart $11,500,000 5% $37,000,000 Lionsgate
3/15/2019 Wonder Park $8,000,000 $30,000,000 Paramount
3/22/2019 The Informer n/a n/a Aviron
3/22/2019 Us $42,000,000 $135,000,000 Universal
3/29/2019 Dumbo (2019) $55,000,000 -4% $164,000,000 -4% Disney
3/29/2019 Hotel Mumbai n/a n/a Bleecker Street
3/29/2019 Unplanned n/a n/a Pure Flix
4/5/2019 The Best of Enemies $10,000,000 $30,000,000 STX
4/5/2019 Pet Sematary (2019) $28,000,000 $65,000,000 Paramount
4/5/2019 Shazam! $48,000,000 $144,000,000 Warner Bros.
4/12/2019 After (2019) n/a n/a Aviron
4/12/2019 Hellboy (2019) $22,000,000 $46,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
4/12/2019 Little $15,000,000 $43,000,000 Universal
4/12/2019 Missing Link $10,000,000 $39,000,000 Annapurna Pictures
4/17/2019 Breakthrough $15,000,000 NEW $56,000,000 NEW Fox
4/17/2019 Penguins $4,500,000 NEW $17,500,000 NEW Disney / Disneynature
4/19/2019 The Curse of La Llorona $20,000,000 NEW $45,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. (New Line)

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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