Long Range Tracking: ‘The Incredibles 2’

This week’s long range report focuses on what will likely be the summer’s biggest animated tentpole: Pixar’s The Incredibles 2.

Writer/director Brad Bird returns with the long-awaited sequel, which has been among the most in demand by Pixar fans since the original film’s run in late 2004. That pic’s $70.5 million opening weekend and $261.4 million domestic haul were Pixar’s best and second best behind Finding Nemo, respectively, at the time.

The sequel’s trailers have picked up where the original’s goodwill left off, generating strong reactions across social media. In fact, Incredibles 2‘s social footprint thus far is trending ahead of Monsters University and, in some aspects, even Finding Dory.

While the original film didn’t quite have the staying power of typical Pixar films, that can arguably be chalked up to the fact that it was ahead of its time. Not only was it the first Pixar title to star human characters, it also opened before the box office boom of superhero films. That sub-genre has gone on to dominate the market over the past decade, spearheaded in recent years by Disney’s own Marvel universe. Pixar itself has since produced massively successful films led by human characters in the likes of Inside OutUpBraveCoco, and Ratatouille.

For Incredibles‘ own part, it has since gone on to become a beloved staple of family movie libraries around the world. The shift of this film’s focus to the family matriarch — Elastigirl (aka Helen Parr, voiced by Holly Hunter) — could serve to further strengthen the film’s appeal among mothers and daughters.

Last but not least, this summer is fairly limited on animated titles boasting blockbuster potential. Only July’s Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation will provide direct competition in the medium, meaning Incredibles 2 has a wide open path to success if reviews and word of mouth deliver at typical Pixar standards.

Also opening on June 15 will be Warner Bros.’ Tag and Sony’s Superfly, but we’re withholding public forecasts for the latter at this time. Check our initial tracking for The Incredibles 2 and Tag in the table below.

Avengers: Infinity War Tracking Update

  • Marvel’s ten-year culmination remains poised for a historic debut next week. The film’s Twitter footprint now more than doubles that of Avengers: Age of Ultron and remains ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Traditional tracking remains at a stellar pace thanks partly to awareness metrics in line with those of Black Panther and Last Jedi. Marketing has delivered the kind of “finale factor” hype only comparable to the biggest of past film franchise finales, increasing the possibility of reaching/breaking Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ all-time opening weekend record.

At this time, Boxoffice’s official tracking for the next Marvel tentpole is:

Domestic Opening Weekend: $235 million – $255 million
Domestic Total Gross: $565 million – $650 million

Final forecasts to follow next week ahead of opening weekend.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/27/2018 Avengers: Infinity War $235,000,000 $600,000,000 4,200 Disney / Marvel
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 1,200 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a n/a Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $13,000,000 -7% $34,800,000 -7% Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $6,000,000 $19,000,000 Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $100,000,000 $242,000,000 Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Global Road Films
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $150,000,000 $390,000,000 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $17,000,000 $42,500,000 Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 $34,000,000 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade n/a n/a OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a Global Road Films
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $42,000,000 $145,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $110,000,000 NEW $395,000,000 NEW Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Superfly n/a NEW n/a NEW Sony
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 NEW $43,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
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