Long Range Tracking: ‘Alpha,’ ‘Crazy Rich Asians,’ & ‘Mile 22’

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Boxoffice’s report this week focuses on early tracking for a trio of mid-August releases.

Alpha
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million

Multiple release date changes and a notable shift in the film’s tone with its most recent trailer are contributing to modest activity here.

Crazy Rich Asians
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million (3-day FSS)

Early tracking and social trends are conservative for now, but it’s nature as the first Hollywood film in a quarter century to star an all-Asian cast could generate stronger momentum heading into August. This may be a sleeper to watch for if the novel’s fans respond well to the adaptation.

Mile 22
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million

Mark Wahlberg should help drive his latest collaboration with director Peter Berg. Lingering competition for action fans from July’s releases and/or end-of-summer fatigue could still be factors to watch out for, but the two-week release delay aids prospects. Early tracking models compare to American Assassin and Den of Thieves.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
6/29/2018 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $14,000,000 $37,000,000 2,900 Sony / Columbia
6/29/2018 Uncle Drew $16,500,000 $45,000,000 2,600 Lionsgate / Summit
7/4/2018 The First Purge $21,000,000 5% $58,000,000 6% 2,800 Universal
7/6/2018 Ant-Man and the Wasp $77,000,000 $205,000,000 3,900 Disney / Marvel
7/13/2018 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $45,000,000 $155,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/13/2018 Skyscraper $40,000,000 -9% $117,000,000 -9% Universal
7/20/2018 The Equalizer 2 $20,000,000 $58,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/20/2018 Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! $33,000,000 $105,000,000 Universal
7/20/2018 Unfriended: Dark Web $7,500,000 -6% $15,000,000 -6% OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
7/27/2018 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $65,000,000 $200,000,000 Paramount
7/27/2018 Teen Titans Go! to the Movies $16,000,000 $50,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/3/2018 Disney’s Christopher Robin $30,000,000 $110,000,000 Disney
8/3/2018 The Darkest Minds $12,000,000 $38,000,000 Fox
8/3/2018 Searching n/a n/a Sony / Screen Gems
8/3/2018 The Spy Who Dumped Me $17,000,000 $63,000,000 Lionsgate
8/10/2018 Dog Days n/a n/a LD Entertainment
8/10/2018 The Meg $14,000,000 $37,000,000 Warner Bros.
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $13,000,000 NEW $42,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
8/17/2018 Alpha $8,500,000 NEW $24,000,000 NEW Sony / Studio 8
8/17/2018 Mile 22 $15,000,000 15% $44,000,000 16% STX

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