Saturday Update: Winter Storm Hunter appears to be having a larger-than-expected impact across areas of the midwest, southeast, and northeast to begin this holiday weekend as Friday estimates for a number of key titles came in well below expectations. The hope is that much of the weather in these often-overlooked areas of the country — which are less equipped to deal with winter weather than major northern cities — will clear up throughout the weekend, but for now projections are even more volatile than usual as a significant portion of the middle-to-eastern United States has been immobilized by snow and ice.
That being said, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle came in at an unsurprising first place yesterday with another $6.125 million in the bank, giving it $262.3 million domestically to date. Four-day estimates could reach as high as $30-32 million, although Sony is a bit more conservative with a $28.5-29.0 million projection.
The Post met expectations with a solid $5.9 million nationwide opening day, no doubt thanks to playing more strongly in urban cities where its target audiences are based away from much of the weather-affected regions so far this weekend. For the four-day, the film remains on track for around $20 million or slightly more.
The Commuter took in $4.56 million yesterday, proving a bit more frontloaded to Thursday night than is typical for a non-franchise film. Early projections from Lionsgate put the Liam Neeson thriller around $14.6 million for the four-day.
Insidious: The Last Key added another $3.4 million yesterday to give it an eight-day haul of $39.6 million. We’re expecting around $12 million for the four-day frame.
Proud Mary came in below tracking with a $3.175 million opening day, although it could easily prove to make up ground throughout the weekend with MLK Day inevitably boosting its internal multiplier. The studio projects between $11.3-12 million through Monday.
The Greatest Showman continues to hold incredibly well (another strong player in major cities) with $3.05 million yesterday and an updated cume of $85.8 million. Its four-day take is expected to be virtually flat with last weekend’s three-day earnings, aiming for around $13.7 million.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi took in $2.723 million, bringing its domestic tally up to $583 million. The film lost more theaters than expected going into the crowded weekend, although the holiday play should still help it net around $14 million for the four-day frame as its push toward becoming the sixth film in history to cross $600 million domestically continues.
Meanwhile, Paddington 2 was another under-performer on Friday as it took in $2.4 million — over 48 percent less than its predecessor’s opening day three years ago. Again, as a family film, this may play much stronger outside major cities as the weekend moves on, but it will be a challenge to meet pre-release expectations at this point. We’re projecting around $12.2 million for the four-day, with more optimistic ranges topping out around $13-14 million.
Early four-day estimates are below. Look for updated three- and four-day estimates from all studios on Sunday and Monday.
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle | $32,000,000 | -14% | 3,849 | 48 | $8,314 | $288,135,909 | 4 | Sony / Columbia |
| 2 | The Post | $20,000,000 | 1078% | 2,819 | 2783 | $7,095 | $24,489,237 | 4 | 20th Century Fox |
| 3 | The Commuter | $14,500,000 | — | 2,892 | — | $5,014 | $14,500,000 | 1 | Lionsgate |
| 4 | Star Wars: The Last Jedi | $14,000,000 | -41% | 3,090 | -1142 | $4,531 | $594,274,584 | 5 | Disney |
| 5 | The Greatest Showman | $13,700,000 | -1% | 2,938 | -404 | $4,663 | $96,453,868 | 4 | Fox |
| 6 | Paddington 2 | $12,200,000 | — | 3,702 | — | $3,296 | $12,200,000 | 1 | Warner Bros. |
| 7 | Proud Mary | $12,100,000 | — | 2,125 | — | $5,694 | $12,100,000 | 1 | Sony / Screen Gems |
| 8 | Insidious: The Last Key | $12,000,000 | -59% | 3,150 | 34 | $3,810 | $48,241,140 | 2 | Universal |
| 9 | Darkest Hour | $5,600,000 | -7% | 1,693 | -40 | $3,308 | $36,815,552 | 8 | Focus Features |
| 10 | Pitch Perfect 3 | $5,600,000 | -46% | 2,505 | -953 | $2,236 | $94,599,225 | 4 | Universal |
| 11 | Coco | $4,700,000 | -13% | 1,362 | -532 | $3,451 | $198,243,440 | 8 | Disney |
| 12 | Molly’s Game | $4,600,000 | -33% | 1,708 | 100 | $2,693 | $21,429,097 | 3 | STX Entertainment |
| 13 | Ferdinand | $4,000,000 | -48% | 2,154 | -1002 | $1,857 | $76,028,094 | 5 | Fox |
| 14 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | $2,800,000 | 297% | 1,022 | 712 | $2,740 | $29,008,459 | 14 | Fox Searchlight |
| 15 | All the Money in the World | $1,500,000 | -58% | 1,408 | -715 | $1,065 | $23,326,060 | 3 | Sony / TriStar |
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | I, Tonya | $4,100,000 | 68% | 517 | 261 | $7,930 | $10,893,736 | 6 | Neon |
| 2 | The Shape of Water | $3,300,000 | 5% | 723 | -81 | $4,564 | $27,021,892 | 7 | Fox Searchlight |
| 3 | Wonder (2017) | $1,300,000 | -45% | 970 | -288 | $1,340 | $128,688,574 | 9 | Lionsgate |
| 4 | Marshall | $620,000 | 11235% | 378 | 337 | $1,640 | $10,104,188 | 14 | Open Road |
| 5 | Thor: Ragnarok | $475,000 | -8% | 242 | -83 | $1,963 | $313,116,320 | 11 | Disney |
| 6 | Downsizing | $360,000 | -84% | 412 | -1608 | $874 | $24,158,239 | 4 | Paramount |
| 7 | Condorito: La Pelicula | $285,000 | — | 153 | — | $1,863 | $285,000 | 1 | Lionsgate / Pantelion |
| 8 | Daddy’s Home 2 | $185,000 | -61% | 201 | -228 | $920 | $103,236,955 | 10 | Paramount |
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hostiles | $320,000 | 19% | 42 | -4 | $7,619 | $865,470 | 4 | Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures |
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Friday Update #2: Contrary to earlier reports from the studio, Warner Bros. has now confirmed that Paddington 2 opened to $325,000 domestically last night. That keeps the film on track to rank highly in its debut this weekend, coming in 86 percent above the first Paddington‘s $175,000 debut before MLK weekend in 2015, while coming in just 7 percent behind Ferdinand‘s recent $350,000 early start before Christmas.
Friday Update: Sources report that The Post bowed to a healthy $775,000 from Thursday night’s first shows of the film’s nationwide expansion. By comparison, that comes in 38 percent ahead of Patriots Day‘s $560,000 Thursday night expansion ahead of MLK weekend last year, as well as 55 percent ahead of Bridge of Spies‘ $500,000 Thursday night start in October 2015. Based on these early results, the film’s four-day weekend trajectory remains on pace with our earlier forecasts.
Close behind was The Commuter as it came in a bit stronger than expected with $700,000 last night. Projections are in flux at this point as that doubled the $350,000 earned by Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit — although the latter film opened four years ago before Thursday night shows had become so prolific among audiences.
Meanwhile, a Warner Bros. representative tells Boxoffice that Paddington 2‘s earnings from last night’s shows won’t likely be released due to its nature as a kids’ movie, although we still expect it will be a strong performer over the course of the holiday frame. If a gross is reported elsewhere, we’ll update this post accordingly.
The weekend’s other newcomer — Sony’s Proud Mary — did not hold Thursday night showings.
Follow us here and on Twitter for official Friday estimates and early weekend estimates on Saturday morning.
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