Memorial Weekend Projections: ‘Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales’ Pacing for $62.5M/$75.5M 3-Day/4-Day; ‘Guardians Vol. 2’ ($21M/$26.8M) Could Upset ‘Baywatch’ ($17M/$21M)

Saturday Report: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales set sail with an estimated $23.395 million opening day on Friday, including Thursday’s opening show grosses. That comes in slightly behind pre-release expectations, but given the long holiday weekend it still has room to make up ground as this may very well be a franchise that isn’t as front-loaded as it used to be (or as front-loaded as recent X-Men and Fast & Furious openers on this weekend). Rough projections based on yesterday’s result have the film landing around $62.5 million for the three-day opening and a solid $75.5 million for the four-day frame.

In second place, Baywatch missed expectations by a wider margin with a $5.73 million second full day in release, giving it a bit over $10.3 million total so far. Its Thursday-to-Friday increase was nearly identical to that of The Hangover Part III on the same holiday weekend in 2013, suggesting weekend patterns may end up similar as well. Again, though, the nature of this film as a non-sequel with heavy star power in Dwayne Johnson may create some back-loading closer to the holiday itself. We’ll see, but for now updated projections have the raunchy comedy taking in a modest $17 million three-day / $21 million four-day / $25.6 million five-day slash line.

Rounding out the top three, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 continues to hold strongly as the Marvel sequel added another $5.322 million on Friday. At its current pace, it may very well upset Baywatch and finish in second place over the three- and four-day weekend tables. The film is eyeing $21 million and $26.8 million for those respective frames.

In fourth place, Alien: Covenant took in $3.0 million yesterday, giving it $49.8 million through eight days of play. A three-day/four-day line of $10.6 million/$13.2 million appears likely, according to the studio. Everything, Everything closed out the top five with $2.06 million yesterday for a $17.4 million eight-day haul. Its weekend outlook is for $6.5 million/$8 million.

We’ll have a complete list of studio weekend estimates for the three-day period on Sunday, followed by four-day estimates on Monday and all actual results on Tuesday.

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Friday Update: Sources report that Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned an estimated $5.5 million from Thursday night’s opening shows beginning at 7pm. Although the previous film, On Stranger Tides, took in $4.7 million from its first shows in May 2011, those were exclusively from midnight runs. More relevant comparisons in this case would be the recent X-Men sequels Days of Future Past and Apocalypse, which respectively bowed to $8.1 million and $8.2 million before Memorial Day. Fast & Furious 6 also qualifies, having earned $6.5 million on the Thursday before Memorial Day in 2013.

Meanwhile, Paramount’s Baywatch claimed an overall first day take of $4.5 million, which includes Wednesday night’s shows. That comes in 62 percent below the $11.79 million Thursday opening of The Hangover Part III ahead of Memorial weekend in 2013, although Baywatch is likely to less front-loaded as a non-sequel.

We’ll have key weekend projections here on Saturday as soon as studios report official Friday estimates.

Thursday Report: Paramount reports today that Baywatch scored $1.25 million from opening night shows beginning at 7pm in 2,554 locations. The studio is currently using We’re the Millers ($1.7 million) and Let’s Be Cops ($1.2 million) as comparisons, although they each opened on a Wednesday during late summer in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The most relevant comparison would be The Hangover Part III, which similarly opened on the Thursday before Memorial Day in 2013 and earned $3.1 million from midnight-only shows.

We’ll have a better idea of weekend projections once Thursday and Friday numbers come in, but for now you can check out Wednesday’s final weekend forecast. Updates to follow in this post.

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