Opening Weekend Forecast: £5M – £7M
Theatrical Total Forecast: £18M – £23M
Cinema advertising company Pearl & Dean has released their predicted opening range for Passenger, opening in the U.K. and Ireland this weekend.
It is somewhat curious that Star Wars‘ grand return to cinemas has looked to the small screen for inspiration. Disney Plus’ The Mandalorian was a streaming hit and has no doubt built a loyal fan base who will come out to its cinema incarnation; a recent U.S. Nielsen report revealed that it was the most watched Star Wars content amongst the much-coveted Gen Alpha audience. However, a TV spin-off (even a Star Wars one) still appeals first and foremost a more niche crowd, while more casual fans may opt to wait for a streaming release.
Our forecasting has The Mandalorian and Grogu nowhere near the franchise heights of films like of Rogue One (£66 million) and The Force Awakens (£123 million), the latter the highest-grossing in the U.K. release of all time. We also expect it to fall short of recent entries comparable blockbuster franchises, such as last year’s Jurassic World: Rebirth (£36 million).
While Disney may have put Star Wars on a big-screen pause following the 2019 release of Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker, they have been churning out content for Disney Plus during that time… with wildly varying results. Shows like Andor, Skeleton Crew, and The Mandalorian were audience favourites, while others—like Ahsoka or The Acolyte—were met with indifference or derision. Such a deluge of content has no doubt diluted the brand and could dampen the box office for The Mandalorian and Grogu.
That same issue has affected another of Disney’s crown jewels, the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Last year saw three acceptable-to-middling box office performances for the franchise: Fantastic Four: First Steps (£23 million), Captain America: Brave New World (£18million), and Thunderbolts* (£16.3 million). The latter two share strong similarities to The Mandalorian and Grogu, in that all three take characters introduced in TV shows and re-launch them for cinemas. (Fantastic Four and The Mandalorian and Grogu, meanwhile, share a lead actor in Pedro Pascal.) We expect The Mandalorian and Grogu to perform within Brave New World and Thunderbolts*‘ high teens-to-low twenties range, which would also put it in the ballpark of Star War’s last cinematic spinoff, 2018’s Solo (£19.4 million).
Comparators: Solo: A Star Wars Story (£19.4 million), Jurassic World: Rebirth (£36 million), Thunderbolts* (£16.3 million)
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