Opening Weekend Forecast: £3-4 million
Theatrical Total Forecast: £10-12 million
U.K.-based cinema advertising company Pearl & Dean has released their predicted opening range for Amazon MGM’s Project Hail Mary, opening in the U.K./Ireland market this weekend.
The Ryan Gosling-starring sci-fi comedy/drama is based on a best-selling novel by The Martian author Andy Weir, whose signature blend of complex scientific concepts and accessible character work turned him into one of our most successful science-fiction authors and makes his work perfect fodder for blockbuster entertainment. The Martian collected a phenomenal £23.6 million when it was adapted for the big screen by Ridley Scott in 2015, and we believe Project Hail Mary can cut through to similar audiences.
Even if it doesn’t reach the £23 mark, Project Hail Mary is practically guaranteed to breeze past the moderate £7 million grossed by sci-fi satire Mickey 17 when it was released this time last year.
The trailers for Project Hail Mary have also done a great job articulating the film’s key selling points. Firstly, the marketing campaign highlights the film’s audacious, galaxy-spanning visuals, which should drive demand for premium large formats like Imax. They have also foregrounded the film’s unlikely pairing of Ryland Grace (Ryan Gosling) and Rocky, the sedimentary extra-terrestrial he meets during his journey to save the dying sun. Their buddy-comedy dynamic highlights Project Hail Mary’s optimistic heart while also providing something in the marketing for audiences to latch onto.
The star-power Gosling brings to the film will also help matters. His slimmed-down recent filmography and succession of hits—including La La Land (£30 million), The Fall Guy (£12 million), and of course Barbie (£95.8 million)—have set him apart as a true A-lister with the power to open a movie. He also has an enviable four-quadrant appeal thanks to his heartthrob persona developed in earlier projects like The Notebook and the male pin-up status stemming from his brooding character work on projects like Drive.
Furthermore, with the blockbuster season spilling over from the summer, March has become a prime release window for studio tentpoles; Dune: Part Two (£39.8 million), Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (£15.6 million), John Wick: Chapter 4 (£17.6 million) and The Batman (£40 million) all opened in March.
Project Hail Mary has received rave early reviews, with reactions describing the film as a masterpiece, awe-inspiring, and a “Must-See Space Odyssey.” Such early buzz will grease the film’s opening weekend and more importantly highlights its ability to generate great word-of-mouth. This, combined with a decent runway before blockbusters start arriving thick-and-fast, should allow the film to leg-out at the box office. Even if Project Hail Mary‘s box office falls short of opening weekend expectations, it has an excellent chance of making up for any perceived underperformance on the back end.
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