Key Takeaways
Total 3-Day Weekend Gross:
$178,687,657 | +58% Last Week / +20.4% Weekend 51, 2024
Disney/20th Century’s Avatar: Fire and Ash got off to a solid, albeit non-record-breaking $88M, start domestically, performing above the first movie’s $77M opening but -34% below the second’s $134.1M. Three other wide releases helped bolster the box office to well-above year-over-year in 2024 when Sonic 3 was on top. It will not be until next week to see if the latest Avatar can stick the landing for 2025 and bring the industry into 2026 with some momentum.
- Top Title: Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) | $88M / 3,800 Screens / $23,158 PSA | Week 1
- Top Opener: Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) | $88M / 3,800 Screens / $23,158 PSA | Week 1
- Best PSA: Marty Supreme (A24) | $875K / 6 Screens / $145,933 PSA | Week 1
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
20th Century Studios | NEW
$88M 3-Day Opening Weekend | $345M Global Total
Disney/20th Century’s Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third entry in James Cameron’s sci-fi magnum opus, got off to a solid start with an estimated $88M from 3,800 screens for a $23,158 Per Screen Average. That won’t turn any heads in terms of opening weekends, it’s not even among the Top 5 debuts of 2025, with a result that is practically on par Disney’s February underachiever, Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8M opening). This is also below our prediction panel’s $100M+ forecast, as well as a -34.4% plunge from the previous film The Way of Water‘s debut ($134.1M) three years ago.
Here’s how the 3-Day looked, including $12M from Thursday previews…
- Friday – $36.5M
- Saturday – $28.5M
- Sunday – $23M
Here’s the format split, with Cameron’s championing of the 3D experience a big motivator behind those majority numbers. A significant chunk (12.6%) of the global total ($43.6M) came from IMAX alone, with $13M of that generated domestically.
Total 3D: 56%
Traditional 3D – 23%
IMAX 3D – 15%
PLF 3D – 14%
Motion 3D – 4%
Total 2D: 44%
Standard 2D – 34%
PLF – 8%
Motion – 1%
ScreenX – 1%
Audiences were 55% male and 45% female, with the largest age bracket being 25-34 at 30%. There was a lower caliber of interest from 13-17 (8%) and under 12 kids (6%), as well as 55+ (7%), which brings into question whether this Avatar has true four quadrant appeal. Here’s how demographics looked…
- Caucasian – 40%
- Hispanic – 26%
- AA – 16%
- Asian – 11%
- Natam/Other – 6%
There are a lot of elements at play in the slightly sluggish start of Avatar 3, starting with over 400 fewer screens than Way of Water opened with (4,202) due to three other new wide titles in competition this week. The slew of counterprogrammers effectively made Fire and Ash a PLF-first play for most circuits, instead of saturating with as many showtimes as possible. This disparity is reflected in the showtime market share among all films over the two titles’ respective opening weekends, according to The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard. With virtually no competition over its opening weekend in 2022, Avatar: The Way of Water commanded a whopping 45% of all showtimes in the United States. This weekend, Fire and Ash, competed with a trio of new wide releases by occupying 25% of all showtimes in the US.
There is also more brand fatigue this time around, since the second entry came 13 years after the first while the third arrives after only a 3-year gap. Pitching it as the third of a potential five-film cycle rather than a trilogy capper also makes it less of an event, something that plagued the stalled Fantastic Beasts series, which died after three pictures.
Rotten Tomatoes critical reaction was a middling 68% compared to previous Fresh scores (81% and 76%, respectively), though the audience score was 91% and CinemaScore was an “A”, indicating enough satisfaction to drive further weekends. PostTrak from general and kid audiences was 4.5 out of 5, though the parent group gave it 5 out 5 and they are the ones with wallet discretion moving forward. The key to both prior Avatar films has been staying power through repeat business.
While it is hard to think an $88M opening is what everyone involved was hoping for, the next frame will be the real test. Both prior Avatar titles enjoyed good-not-great opening weekends before becoming consistent earners in subsequent weeks. Fire and Ash will need solid holds through mid-January to meet its end of the bargain, as exhibitors planned for the title to drive a month’s worth of consistent business to theaters. Columbia’s meta comedy Anaconda redo is a non-threat, tracking for around $20M, so the field should be clear enough to build Avatar 3 into the engine that keeps theaters humming into an uncertain 2026.
Avatar: Fire and Ash got off to a much brighter start overseas, taking in $257M (Way of Water earned $307.6M) from 51 material territories for a global haul of $345M compared to $441.7M on the last one’s opening, ultimately creating a nearly $100M deficit between the two debuts. The franchise has always played well globally, with over 2/3 of business on the last picture’s $2.32B total coming from foreign markets. After Zootopia 2‘s success in the Middle Kingdom, all eyes were on China as Fire and Ash brought in $57.6M from the territory, which is actually better than Way of Water‘s debut there ($56M). China alone was responsible for $245.9M of the last movie’s gross.
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Opening Weekend
Top Ten Overseas Markets
1. China | $57.6M
2. France | $21.4M
3. Germany | $18.0M
4. Korea | $13.6M
5. UK | $11.9M
6. Mexico | $10.0M
7. India | $9.2M
8. Australia | $8.2M
9. Italy | $7.9M
10 Spain | $7.1M
2. David
Angel Studios | NEW
$22M 3-Day Opening Weekend
Angel Studios was able to rally both faith-based and holiday-minded audiences for its animated biblical flick David, which took in an estimated $22M from 3,118 screens, for a $7,056 PSA. Critics were so-so on the movie with 70% on RT, but audience score was 98% along with an “A” CinemaScore, on-brand for the studio and its Angel Guild members.
This gross beats The Sound of Freedom’s $19.6M as the biggest Angel Studios opening, and also bests their own The King of Kings ($19.4M) as the biggest faith-based animated theatrical opening of all-time. The film opened to $9.6M on Friday, including $1.8M in Thursday previews.
“Families are searching for values-driven films that honor hope, and our Angel Guild members embraced David from the very beginning,” said Brandon Purdie, head of theatrical at Angel. “We greatly value the support of our outstanding exhibitors and look forward to a robust, extended theatrical run as this popular animated musical continues to warm hearts and inspire families this Christmas.”
Having already opened in Portugal and South Africa, David is getting a slow overseas rollout with most major territories opening in late March during Easter festivities.
3. The Housemaid
Lionsgate | NEW
$19M 3-Day Domestic Opening Weekend
The Housemaid served up a solid holiday opening of $19M from 3,015 screens for a $6,302 PSA. This is better performance than director Paul Feig’s last theatrical female-led thriller, A Simple Favor, which opened in September 2018 on a similar number of screens and grossed $16M.
Here’s How the 3-Day looked, including $2.2M in Thursday previews…
- Friday – $8M
- Saturday – $5.8M
- Sunday – $5.15M
The audience makeup was 70% Female and 75% in the 25+ age bracket. There was clear momentum from the best-selling source material by Freida McFadden, plus the appeal of witnessing a battle of the blondes with stars Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried. RT critical was 75%, while audience score was 92% and CinemaScore provided the movie with a genre-acceptable “B.” The studio expects the film to have legs into the New Year, as did Sweeney’s R-rated comedy Anyone but You.
Other Notable Performances
Paramount’s The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants disappointed in fourth place with $16M in 3,557 locations for a $4,498 PSA. That’s far below our panel’s low-end prediction, as well as the openings of the previous two theatrical films ($32M and $55.36M, respectively). CinemaScore was “A-” while Rotten Tomatoes critical was 88% alongside a 77% audience score, so the quality was there. The film would have likely found a better path to success in either Q1 or Q3, as with the second film’s successful February debut. Going up against Avatar 3, David, and holdover Zootopia 2 was bold but, in retrospect, foolhardy.
A24 gave director Josh Safdie’s table tennis biopic, Marty Supreme, a platform debut, resulting in $875K from 6 screens for a PSA of $145,933, easily toppling The Phoenician Scheme‘s $93,417 for the biggest PSA of the year. That performance was good enough to catapult the film into the Top 10 at #9 , an extremely rare feat for a film opening in under ten screens. Starring Timothée Chalamet as Marty Mauser, the movie has a 95% critical score on RT and seems destined for awards season love.
Director Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On? was also given a 6 screen limited engagement where it took in $145K for distributor Searchlight, averaging $24,167 per screen. Starring Will Arnett and Laura Dern, the dramedy about comedians earned an 89% critical rating via RT and could be an awards contender.
Next Weekend
Columbia is taking their moribund Anaconda franchise into 21 Jump Street territory with the meta comedy redo starring Jack Black and Paul Rudd, which is looking for a modest start in the market as the only major X-mas release. Focus Features also has director Craig Brewer’s Song Sung Blue, a biopic of the Neil Diamond tribute band Lightning & Thunder starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson. Marty Supreme will build on a year-best PSA in a significant Christmas-day expansion.
Sunday Studio Estimates | Weekend 51 – 2025
Total 3-Day Domestic Gross: $178,687,657 | (+20.4% vs 2024)
| Title | Weekend Estimate | % Change | Locations | Location Change | PSA | Domestic Total | Week | Distributor |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | $88,000,000 | 3,800 | $23,158 | 88,000,000 | 1 | 20th Century | ||
| David | $22,000,000 | 3,118 | $7,056 | 22,000,000 | 1 | Angel Studios | ||
| The Housemaid | $19,000,000 | 3,015 | $6,302 | 19,000,000 | 1 | Lionsgate | ||
| The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants | $16,000,000 | 3,557 | $4,498 | 16,000,000 | 1 | Paramount | ||
| Zootopia 2 | $14,500,000 | -44% | 3,540 | -295 | $4,096 | 282,809,929 | 4 | Walt Disney |
| Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 | $7,250,000 | -63% | 3,012 | -567 | $2,407 | 108,930,000 | 3 | Universal |
| Wicked: For Good | $4,300,000 | -50% | 2,913 | -567 | $1,476 | 320,507,000 | 5 | Universal |
| Dhurandhar | $2,500,000 | -28% | 400 | 23 | $6,250 | 12,400,000 | 3 | Yash Raj Films |
| Marty Supreme | $875,000 | 6 | $145,833 | 875,000 | 1 | A24 | ||
| Hamnet | $850,000 | -41% | 617 | -132 | $1,378 | 8,760,000 | 4 | Focus Features |
| Now You See Me: Now You Don’t | $600,000 | -75% | 718 | -1,693 | $836 | 61,075,000 | 6 | Lionsgate |
| Eternity | $581,553 | -67% | 514 | -1,553 | $1,131 | 14,808,255 | 4 | A24 |
| Ella McCay | $480,000 | -76% | 2,500 | n/c | $192 | 3,574,612 | 2 | 20th Century |
| Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution | $399,020 | -81% | 1,935 | n/c | $206 | 15,940,181 | 3 | GKIDS |
| The Secret Agent | $335,050 | 40% | 133 | 90 | $2,519 | 951,985 | 4 | Neon |
| Predator: Badlands | $213,000 | -78% | 380 | -885 | $561 | 90,611,711 | 7 | 20th Century |
| How the Grinch Stole Christmas | $200,000 | -95% | 735 | -1,515 | $272 | 265,288,000 | 1,310 | Universal |
| Sentimental Value | $148,000 | -35% | 122 | -119 | $1,213 | 3,662,128 | 7 | Neon |
| Is This Thing On? | $145,000 | 6 | $24,167 | 145,000 | 1 | Searchlight | ||
| Rental Family | $62,000 | -76% | 110 | -205 | $564 | 9,943,135 | 5 | Searchlight |
| Resurrection | $56,900 | -9% | 7 | 4 | $8,129 | 143,444 | 2 | Janus Films |
| It Was Just an Accident | $31,600 | n/c | 31 | -7 | $1,019 | 1,576,101 | 10 | Neon |
| You Got Gold A Celebration of John Prine | $12,364 | 101% | 10 | 4 | $1,236 | 57,546 | 4 | Abramorama F |
| Mistress Dispeller | $2,873 | 59% | 8 | 1 | $359 | 87,331 | 9 | Oscilloscope |
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