The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | December 19 – 21, 2025
Week 51 | December 19 – 21, 2025
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
20th Century Studios | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $100M – $120M
Pros
- 20th Century’s blockbuster threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash is positioned as the last big studio tentpole of 2025, poised to fill PLF screens for the next four weekends. With PLF being the principal driver behind the title, we expect demand to spread out through its first two weeks in release—resulting in a $100M+ opening weekend that should give way to a domestic run of $400M+ and $1 Billion+ worldwide. Currently, we’re anticipated an opening weekend in the lower half of our range. That is on-brand for the Avatar franchise, which kicked off in 2009 with a $77M opening before going on to become the biggest movie of all-time domestically with a $785.2M current total (it is now #4). Globally, the first Avatar film is still the global box office champ with $2.9B. James Cameron’s 2022 follow-up, The Way of Water opened to $134.1M, making it the 45th highest domestic opener to date. The trick is both films held mightily throughout the bulk of their theatrical tenure, 48 weeks for Avatar and 23 weeks for The Way of Water.
Cons
- Our opening weekend and domestic forecasts have Avatar 3 losing speed compared to the sequel—but that was always anticipated with this title. The prior two entries were released so far apart from each other that they both became events, drawing in audiences curious to experience the latest benchmark in cinema technology and visual effects. Fire and Ash is arriving only three years after the last sequel, so it will likely not have the same draw. We should see a turnout more concentrated on fans of the franchise, which could curtail its earning potential, as could the fact that it is technically the second half of the story begun in Way of Water, rather than a standalone sequel. Strong reviews are already trickling in, with a narrative emerging that it is the strongest entry in the series. The current Rotten Tomatoes critical approval is 71%, which is about on-par with the first two (81% and 76% respectively).
2. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $25M – $30M
Pros
- Paramount is bringing The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, the fourth feature-length entry based on iconic Nickelodeon series, to theaters just in time for Zootopia 2 fatigue. Standard auditoriums will still be in play with three other wide new releases. We expect Spongebob, the first new family movie since Zootopia 2, to claim second place even as it opens with lower grosses than the last two domestic releases. The cheeky humor and colorful style has always had crossover appeal to grown-ups, and Search for SquarePants represents a great opportunity for the franchise to get theatrical back on track after the last movie went direct-to-streaming. Mark Hamill is there for older audience recognition in a live-action/animated hybrid role, and early reviews are leaning mostly positive.
Cons
- SpongeBob has never been a runaway success theatrically, but this entry could potentially come close to a $100M domestic run if it connects with audiences. The original 2004 SpongeBob SquarePants: The Movie opened to $32M before making a lifetime domestic cume of $85.4M, while 2015’s The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water opened at $55.36M before earning a strong $162.99M stateside. Unfortunately, August 2020’s The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run was a COVID casualty only released theatrically in Canada ($4.8M total) before hitting VOD and Paramount+ in early 2021. TV-to-film is always a mixed bag, especially in the streaming era, but the hope here is that Spongebob can translate to a fun night out with the kids.
3. The Housemaid
Lionsgate | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $20M – $25M
Pros
- Based on Freida McFadden’s novel, which has sold over 3.5 million copies, Lionsgate’s The Housemaid is looking to claim a third place finish in the market. Part erotic thriller, part horror movie, and part big-screen soap opera, the film wears its pop-culture influences proudly and never wavers from its airport bestseller vibe. Definitely adult-skewing, it was never going to challenge the top two movies and could even finish fourth behind Angel Studios’ David. Stars Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried are a perfect compliment to each other in this “who is crazier than who?” story of a troubled woman who becomes live-in help for a family with its own set of issues. Reviews are solid at 80% fresh on RT.
Cons
- Regardless of how The Housemaid performs, there will likely be cynical headlines about the imagined negative impact Sydney Sweeney’s presence in the film. Don’t take the bait. The Sweeney-starring independent boxing biopic Christy ($1.95M domestic) was never expected to be a competitive wide release, taking over more screens than anticipated due to a moribund October box office. Place any actor in that role and Christy delivers the same result. Instead, the closest comp for this title is director Paul Feig’s 2018 female-led thriller hit A Simple Favor, also from Lionsgate, which opened to $16M and topped out around $60M domestic. A Christmas release date and name recognition should help boost it into the $20M range, but we could realistically see this opening in the high-teens. Out of all new openers, this is the only title aiming for a more targeted demographic, and we expect the numbers to reflect that.
WILD CARD:
David
Angel Studios | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
- Angel Studios already delivered a similar faith-based animated hit this Easter with The King of Kings ($60.7M domestic). There’s potential for David to leverage interest from family audiences to possibly steal third place—and even challenge for second should Spongebob open softer than anticipated. At this point, we think fourth place with a big upside is a more realistic position, with a nearly-guaranteed “A” or “A+” CinemaScore driven by the faith-based audience boosting word-of-mouth.
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