Weekend Box Office Forecast: MEAN GIRLS Likely to Threepeat Amid Oscar Nominee Expansions and No Major Openers

Photo credit: Jojo Whilden/Paramount, Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

Ongoing box office doldrums reach a likely nadir this weekend. With no major studios releases on deck, the pressure is once again on holdovers to carry 2024’s nascent box office.

WEEKEND PROS:

  • Holdovers continue to impress early on in the new year, with notable recognition going to Wonka, Migration, and Anyone But You. Combined, the three holiday leftovers have eased an average of just 27 percent over the last two weekends as each benefits from positive audience reception among target demographics.
  • With Oscar nominations having been announced on January 23, several films could enjoy modest box office upticks depending on final location count boosts. The most net impact will probably be felt by the likes of American Fiction and Poor Things. Elsewhere, Godzilla Minus One Minus Zero should bring back many of its fans with a re-expansion for the special edition release.

WEEKEND CONS:

  • As noted, for the second consecutive frame there are no major studio releases are scheduled. Despite the relative strength of the aforementioned holiday holdover crew, the absence of a true event film to begin the new year—combined with a light release slate and lingering impacts of last year’s labor strikes—continue to hamper winter attendance for exhibitors.
  • Pending stronger holds than expected, this weekend’s box office is on pace for the lowest gross since the December 9, 2022 frame when Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s fifth outing led a top ten that only reached $33.3 million. 2023’s low point was the weekend of September 22, led by The Nun II‘s third frame as part of an overall $42.35 million top ten.

Current projection ranges call for a 37% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $62.3 million in 2023 and a 47% decrease from 2019’s $73.8 million frame.

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 28 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Mean Girls (2023) Paramount Pictures $7,200,000 $60,300,000 ~3,600 -38%
The Beekeeper MGM $6,100,000 $40,700,000 ~3,300 -29%
Wonka Warner Bros. Pictures $5,500,000 $194,800,000 ~3,100 -18%
Migration Universal Pictures & Illumination $4,700,000 $100,900,000 ~3,100 -14%
Anyone But You Sony & Columbia Pictures $4,300,000 $70,600,000 ~2,900 -20%
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Warner Bros. Pictures $2,600,000 $117,900,000 ~2,300 -29%
American Fiction MGM $2,500,000 $11,400,000 ~1,600 +43%
Poor Things Searchlight Pictures $2,300,000 $24,100,000 ~2,100 +8%
The Boys in the Boat MGM $2,000,000 $47,200,000 ~1,900 -21%
Night Swim Universal Pictures & Blumhouse $1,800,000 $26,500,000 ~2,300 -36%

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

Photo credit: Jojo Whilden/Paramount, Courtesy of Paramount Pictures
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