Weekend Box Office Forecast: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE Aims for Franchise Record $90-100M+ 5-Day Domestic Launch

Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning - Part One, Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

July’s anticipated gauntlet of major releases kicks off this week with Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One aiming for a new franchise-best box office debut.

Following Insidious: The Red Door‘s debut on the high end of expectations, alongside The Sound of Freedom‘s sleeper breakout status, Mission begins a string of three summer tentpoles opening over a nine-day span that will include Barbie and Oppenheimer later next week.

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Paramount Pictures

July 12, 2023 (WIDE)

3-Day (FSS) Opening Weekend Range: $61M-$75M
5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Weekend Range: $91M-$110M

PROS:

  • As outlined in a prior analysis, a post-Top Gun: Maverick bump here should be advantageous. The same goes for Tom Cruise’s relentless promotion of Dead Reckoning Part One in recent weeks and months, all of which followed a long marketing campaign that began more than one year ago with a behind-the-scenes featurette screening in front of the aforementioned Maverick during its historic theatrical run.
  • Pre-sales for Reckoning have not disappointed in the final stages of tracking before release. The combination of Sunday’s Walmart subscriber screenings, Monday’s early access shows, and Tuesday’s traditional previews have outpaced recent adult male-driven films like Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, and Creed III.
  • Critics are ecstatic over the latest Mission, awarding the film a superb 98 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes with 195 reviews as of Tuesday morning.
  • Dial of Destiny‘s underperformance further emphasizes the open market Reckoning has right now to serve as an event theatrical film among its target adult audience. As usual, the movie will enjoy the breadth of IMAX and other premium screen formats during its opening.

CONS:

  • Not much is working against this sequel at this stage except for the premium screen competition ahead as Oppenheimer and, to a lesser extent, Barbie will take over much of that footprint beginning with their respective preview openings on Thursday, July 20.
  • With a robust run time of two hours and forty-three minutes, this is the longest Mission: Impossible film so far. Audience reception will need to generally reflect that of critics and recent Mission movies’ word of mouth if staying power is going to meet expectations for another long run through the back half of summer and early fall.
  • Combined with Cruise and director Christopher McQuarrie’s recent comments that the two-part Dead Reckoning installments will not be the end of the franchise after all, any speculative finale boost that may have added to the appeal of this entry isn’t part of the equation anymore.

Current projection ranges call for a 6% to 17% increase from last weekend’s $121 million top ten aggregate.

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 16 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Tue) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Paramount Pictures $68,500,000 $100,800,000 ~4,300 NEW
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Disney / Lucasfilm $14,600,000 $150,200,000 ~4,000 -47%
Insidious: The Red Door Sony Pictures / Screen Gems $13,300,000 $59,700,000 ~3,188 -60%
Sound of Freedom Angel Studios $13,000,000 $66,000,000 ~3,000 -34%
Elemental Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar $8,200,000 $124,700,000 ~3,200 -18%
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia Pictures $5,700,000 $368,300,000 ~2,500 -29%
No Hard Feelings Sony / Columbia Pictures $3,600,000 $47,300,000 ~1,900 -33%
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Paramount Pictures $3,000,000 $152,500,000 ~1,900 -41%
The Little Mermaid (2023) Walt Disney Pictures $2,900,000 $294,600,000 ~1,600 -21%
Joy Ride Lionsgate $2,800,000 $11,200,000 ~2,820 -52%

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning - Part One, Courtesy of Paramount Pictures
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