Weekend Box Office Forecast: RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ, GODZILLA MINUS ONE, THE SHIFT and SILENT NIGHT

Courtesy Parkwood Entertainment

The post-Thanksgiving corridor is typically a slow one, which will be true again for the most part this year. The exception looks to be Beyoncé’s concert film, which appears headed toward a #1 box office debut.

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé

AMC Theatres Distribution

December 1, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $14M-$25M

WEEKEND PROS:

  • The addition of Renaissance to the release calendar earlier this fall was a welcome surprise for theater owners who typically have to endure post-Thanksgiving blues at the box office. Thursday preview interest was robust from the outset of pre-sales two months ahead of time, while ticket volume has been comparable to that of The Eras Tour‘s second weekend. An average ticket price north of $20 is also worth factoring in.
  • Pre-sales for Toho International’s Godzilla Minus One are pacing 56 percent ahead of Suzume with niche fan appeal driving what looks to be another specialty release success. Likewise, Angel Studios’ The Shift is seeing healthy Friday sales comparable to After Death at the same point, while John Woo and action fans could turn out for Silent Night as it bows on the same weekend that saw Violent Night open well last year.
  • Positive word of mouth for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes should help its continued staying power after upsetting the market with a repeat finish atop the box office over Thanksgiving weekend.

WEEKEND CONS:

  • Beyoncé’s concert film is sharply behind the first weekend of Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour at the same point before release—though Renaissance matching the earlier film’s $92.8M opening was never a realistic expectation. Additionally, pre-sale pacing has not picked up in the days closer to release, suggesting the film may lack casual audience appeal to an even sharper degree than Swift’s front-loaded film.
  • As a film not based on existing IP that lacks the comedic appeal that helped last year’s Violent Night take off., Silent Night tracking activity is notably behind the weekend’s other releases.
  • Overall, the post-Thanksgiving market remains in a challenged position due to lingering impact from strike-induced release delays and the severe underperformance of Disney’s Wish.

Current projection ranges call for a 57% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $49.2 million in 2022 and a 54% decrease from 2019’s $167.3 million frame, which was Thanksgiving weekend at the time.

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 3 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé AMC Theatres Distribution $18,000,000 $18,000,000 2,539 NEW
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Lionsgate $13,100,000 $118,800,000 ~3,700 -55%
Napoleon Sony Pictures & Apple $10,000,000 $49,100,000 ~3,500 -52%
Wish Disney $8,600,000 $43,200,000 ~3,900 -56%
Godzilla Minus One Toho International $8,100,000 $8,100,000 ~2,300 NEW
Trolls Band Together Universal Pictures $7,000,000 $74,500,000 ~3,600 -61%
The Shift Angel Studios $3,900,000 $3,900,000 2,400 NEW
Silent Night Lionsgate $3,100,000 $3,100,000 ~2,000 NEW
Thanksgiving Sony Pictures & TriStar $3,000,000 $28,800,000 ~2,500 -58%
The Marvels Disney & Marvel Studios $2,600,000 $80,700,000 ~2,300 -59%

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

Courtesy Parkwood Entertainment
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