This is a developing report and will be updated, if necessary, before first weekend reporting.
Thursday Update: FInal forecasts are listed below, with notable revisions for Jujutsu Kaisen 0 and X, as well as updated location counts from the studios.
Wednesday Report: As The Batman continues to lead the way with a domestic haul over $250 million after just 12 days, the third frame of March will again belong to the DC blockbuster even as a quartet of new films open in most nationwide markets.
Fresh off a $66.5 million sophomore weekend, Warner Bros. and Matt Reeves’ comic book noir hit will remain mostly unchallenged this weekend with strong audience reception behind it. The picture will lose some IMAX space to one of the new openers this weekend (more on that below), but otherwise the Robert Pattinson-led reboot is likely on course for a third frame approaching $40 million or more as it looks to cross the $300 million domestic threshold this weekend.
Among the new releases, Funimation’s Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie appears to be the frontrunner during this quiet March weekend. The studio has had considerable success bringing fan-driven anime films to North America, most recently with last year’s My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission and Demon Slayer: Mugen Train.
Tracking comparisons for Jujutsu are obviously limited given the niche audience, so the question is which of those two recent releases it behaves more like. Pre-sales are very encouraging, and weekend play could be strong even after Thursday night previews. A true wide release is also at hand with Showtimes Dashboard registering nearly 2,200 locations booked as of Wednesday morning — already more than Academia‘s 1,585 and Demon Slayer‘s 1,614.
Based on the habits of these and similar films to exceed expectations, and with an IMAX footprint this weekend, Jujutsu has some modest breakout potential that could see it crack the top three this weekend. The Japanese import has a strong early Rotten Tomatoes score of 100 percent from 13 critics.
From there, the remaining openers have a similarly wide array of scenarios which could play out. A24’s X should bring out fans of the indie distributor, whose track record for original content is more than admirable considering the minimal marketing push this and other titles are often given.
X is likely to open in over 2,500 locations based on Dashboard data. Social metrics are healthy for the genre with sentiment models comparing to the likes of Searchlight Pictures’ Antlers and The Night House last year. The film is scoring very well among critics with 100 percent from 29 Rotten Tomatoes reviews.
On the limited-to-semi-wide front, Focus Features will launch The Outfit in hopes of counter-programming to adult moviegoers this weekend. The film is booked at more than 1,130 locations as of Wednesday morning and is most comparable to recent films like The Card Counter and The Courier.
From 33 reviews, The Outfit sits at 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.
Meanwhile, Sony will contend against A24’s target horror audience this weekend with Umma. Marketing has been slim (something that can be said for almost all of this weekend’s openers) and expectations are very conservative.
The film currently has no reviews published on Rotten Tomatoes, while Showtimes Dashboard registers the film booked at slightly over 700 locations as of Wednesday morning.
Last but not least, Stand with Ukraine: The Guide will open in approximately 500 theaters. The 2014 Ukrainian will be screening with the intention of proceeds going toward the Ukraine Relief Fund managed by the Human & Civil Rights Organizations of America, Inc.
We are not offering up forecasts for the film.
Weekend Forecast Ranges
Second Weekend Range: $40 — 48 million
Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie
Second Weekend Range: $8 — 13 million
Second Weekend Range: $750K — $2.5 million
Second Weekend Range: $500K — $1.5 million
Second Weekend Range: $3 — 6 million
Weekend Forecast & Location Counts
Boxoffice projects between an 18 to 28 percent decline for this weekend’s top ten films from last weekend’s $99.3 million top ten aggregate.
|Film||Distributor||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 20||Location Count||% Change from Last Wknd|
|The Batman||Warner Bros.||$44,000,000||$307,600,000||4,302||-34%|
|Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie||Funimation||$10,500,000||$10,500,000||2,336||NEW|
|Uncharted||Sony Pictures / Columbia||$8,000,000||$125,300,000||3,700||-14%|
|Dog||United Artists Releasing||$4,700,000||$54,700,000||3,307||-9%|
|Spider-Man: No Way Home||Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios||$3,800,000||$798,000,000||2,585||-6%|
|Death on the Nile||Disney / 20th Century Studios||$2,100,000||$43,900,000||2,050||-13%|
|Sing 2||Universal Pictures||$1,500,000||$158,400,000||1,838||-6%|
|The Outfit||Focus Features||$1,300,000||$1,300,000||1,324||NEW|
*All forecasts are subject to revision before the first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are updated as confirmed by studios. The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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