Weekend Box Office Forecast: The Batman Heads Into Second Frame Unrivaled, Targeting a Top 5 All-Time March Holdover

Photo Credits: Warner Bros. ("The Batman")

The following is a breaking report. Forecasts and ranges will be updated/finalized before Friday if necessary.

Studios have frequently avoided the weekend after a major tentpole release in recent months, and that holds true in the wake of The Batman‘s second-best pandemic bow of $134 million.

Matt Reeves and Warner Bros.’ reboot of the DC Comics icon opened within expected thresholds last week and scored both the aforementioned pandemic era benchmark and the first $100 million-plus domestic opening by a non-Disney film since Universal’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom in June 2018 (excluding Sony and Spider-Man: No Way Home, of course, which was produced under Disney’s Marvel Studios banner).

The Batman is drawing a predominately adult male audience, and with strong word of mouth in the bank, its should be poised to stretch box office legs in the weeks to come.

As noted in earlier reporting, the film drew a moviegoer makeup comparable to those of Joker and Logan, a factor playing to its strengths as the weekend evolved and saw strong matinee business following a typical show of front-loading by fans across pre-Friday previews and Friday night itself.

Those fellow comic book titles remain strong comps for The Batman going forward. While this film’s length and darker tone are the primary factors perhaps limiting repeat views, the same could have been (and often was) said of those films. It may prove to be a strength here, as last weekend’s internal trajectories began to already show.

A severe lack of market competition will further boost optimistic scenarios. While Joker slid 41.9 percent in its second weekend and Logan dropped 56.9 percent, they respectively saw Gemini Man and Kong: Skull Island debut in their sophomore frames. The Batman faces no such challengers, meaning another holdover-driven market is at hand during the waning stages of the pandemic before spring releases pick up with more consistency in April.

The film’s Friday-to-Friday drop will be sharp since Warner Bros. rolled all Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday preview grosses into last week’s “opening day” Friday figure, but stabilization should occur almost immediately from there. IMAX, Dolby, RPX, ScreenX, and the gamut of premium screens remain at the Bat’s disposal. 30 percent of its domestic opening came from that exhibition sector.

Beauty and the Beast‘s $90.4 million second weekend, a record for any March release, is out of reach, but Captain Marvel‘s $68 million and Alice in Wonderland‘s $62.7 million may be up for grabs. The Hunger Games isn’t far behind with $58.6 million, while fifth place currently belongs to The Passion of the Christ ($53.3 million). We expect The Batman to land among the latter quartet for one of the all-time best second showings by a March opener.

Within the Batman realm, the top two second weekend hauls belong to The Dark Knight ($75.2 million, down 52.5 percent) and The Dark Knight Rises ($62.1 million, down 61.4 percent).

Elsewhere, films like Uncharted, Dog, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Death on the Nile will provide the bulk of holdover prowess. Spring break is going into full effect for many schools across the country as we approach mid-March, so that should boost theatrical attendance among families with kids — particularly during weekdays.

Also opening this Friday are Great India FIlms’ Radhe Shyam and Iconic Events’ Tyson’s Run in limited release. Given the specialty nature of their distribution, we’re not currently providing forecasts for either. However, both are candidates to crack the top ten.

Weekend Forecast Ranges

The Batman
Second Weekend Range: $54 — 68 million

Weekend Forecast & Location Counts

Boxoffice projects between a 47 to 52 percent decrease for this weekend’s top ten films from last weekend’s $163.4 million top ten aggregate. 

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 13 Location Count % Change from Last Wknd
The Batman Warner Bros. $61,000,000 $232,700,000 4,417 -55%
Uncharted Sony Pictures / Columbia $7,900,000 $111,900,000 3,725 -29%
Dog United Artists Releasing $4,700,000 $47,100,000 3,407 -23%
Spider-Man: No Way Home Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios $4,000,000 $792,400,000 2,702 -11%
Death on the Nile Disney / 20th Century Studios $2,000,000 $40,200,000 2,450 -27%
Sing 2 Universal Pictures $1,400,000 $155,700,000 1,972 -14%
Jackass Forever Paramount Pictures $1,100,000 $56,300,000 1,627 -23%
Cyrano United Artists Releasing $525,000 $3,400,000 694 -23%
Scream (2022) Paramount Pictures $425,000 $80,900,000 664 -26%
Radhe Shyam Great India Films     ~850 NEW
Marry Me Universal Pictures     870  
Tyson’s Run Iconic Events     ~500 NEW

*All forecasts are subject to revision before the first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are updated as confirmed by studiosThe above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

Photo Credits: Warner Bros. ("The Batman")
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