Weekend Box Office: Knock at the Cabin Ends Avatar’s Run at No. 1; 80 for Brady Starts in Second

Knock at the Cabin

Universal’s horror-thriller Knock at the Cabin opened the door to $14.2M in first place.

Measures against other comparable titles from writer-director M. Night Shyamalan, Cabin’s opening is:

• -15% below 2021’s Old ($16.8M)
• -44% below 2015’s The Visit ($25.4M)

Compared to other similar February horror releases, it’s:

• -57% below 2017’s Get Out ($33.3M)
• -49% below 2020’s The Invisible Man ($28.2M)
• -32% below 2012’s The Woman in Black ($20.8M)
• +49% above 2019’s Happy Death Day 2U ($9.4M)

Cabin’s estimated audience was 58% male, 62% younger than 35, and only 39% white. The film received a disappointing “C” CinemaScore.

Overseas, the film opened with $7.0M in 60 markets, for a $21.2M global opening. For comparison, that global opening is lower than some industry projections’ domestic opening alone.

80 for Brady

Paramount’s comedy 80 for Brady threw a touchdown, or at least kicked a field goal, with a $12.5M debut in second place.

Compared to some other similar titles, its opening is:

• -23% below 2013’s Last Vegas ($16.3M)
• -8% below 2018’s Book Club ($13.5M)
• -2% below January’s A Man Called Otto ($12.8M)
• +4% above 2017’s Going in Style ($11.9M)

[Read Boxoffice PRO’s interview with 80 for Brady director Kyle Marvin here.]

Avatar: The Way of Water (domestic weekend)

20th Century Studios’ sci-fi sequel Avatar: The Way of Water saw a -32% decline to $10.8M and third place, its first frame where it didn’t lead.

There was still great news for the film at the domestic box office: it claimed the #12 eighth weekend of all time.

All time, Water has earned the:

Among all eighth weekends, it ranks behind only:

1. 1997’s Titanic ($23.0M)
2. 2009’s Avatar ($22.8M)
3. 2014’s American Sniper ($16.4M)
4. 1993’s Aladdin ($15.6M)
5. 2013’s Frozen ($14.7M)
6. 2002’s Chicago ($12.7M)
7. 1990’s Home Alone ($12.6M)
8. 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick ($12.3M)
9. 2016’s La La Land ($12.2M)
10. 1990’s Dances with Wolves ($11.8M)
11. 1998’s There’s Something About Mary ($10.9M)

With $636.4M domestically, Water now ranks #10 all time, behind only:

1. 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.6M)
2. 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($858.3M)
3. 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home ($814.1M)
4. 2009’s Avatar ($785.2M)
5. 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick ($718.7M)
6. 2018’s Black Panther ($700.4M)
7. 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War ($678.8M)
8. 1997’s Titanic ($659.3M)
9. 2015’s Jurassic World ($653.4M)

That also makes Water the #2 release from 2022 so far, despite only achieving the #5 opening weekend of that year.

Overall, it still ranks behind the total of Top Gun: Maverick, at least for the moment. However, it’s currently running +2.9% ahead of Maverick through the equivalent point in release. However, that’s down from running +3.9% ahead after last weekend.

Water is also running +1.1% ahead of 2009’s original Avatar through the equivalent point in release. However, that’s down from running +4.2% ahead after last weekend.

Avatar: The Way of Water (overseas / global)

Water declined -36% overseas this weekend, slightly steeper than its -32% domestic drop.

Overseas, Water has earned $1.53B total. That’s the #3 overseas total of all time, behind only:

1. 2009’s Avatar ($2.13B)
2. 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($1.94B)

Globally, Water has earned $2.17B total. That’s the #4 biggest global total of all time, behind only:

1. 2009’s Avatar ($2.92B)
2. 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($2.79B)
3. 1997’s Titanic ($2.19B)

Water already surpassed Maverick to become the biggest global release from 2022. Compared to Maverick’s $1.48B global total, Water is now +47% ahead and counting.

Water’s top overseas totals to date include:

1. China ($240.6M)
2. France ($141.5M)
3. Germany ($130.7M)
4. South Korea ($105.5M)
5. U.K. ($88.2M)

So far, the film has earned 70.7% of its global total from overseas. That’s slightly less than Avatar during its original run (72.7%), but notably higher than Maverick (51.7%), thanks in large part due Water receiving a China release which Maverick did not.

Water’s China earnings are +18% ahead of the amount Avatar earned there during its original run ($202.6M). Water is also the #2 biggest film from 2022 in that country, behind only local title Water Gate Bridge.

According to numbers from Endata, Water is also the #39 film of all time in China. Among Hollywood titles, it’s #8 all time in China, behind only:

1. 1. Avengers: Endgame
   2. The Fate of the Furious
   3. Furious 7
   4. Avengers: Infinity War
   5. Aquaman
   6. Transformers: Age of Extinction
   7. Venom

Avatar: The Way of Water (IMAX)

Water has earned $85.7M from IMAX domestically. That’s the #3 highest total of all time, behind only 2009’s Avatar ($140M) and 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($125M).

Water has earned $170M from IMAX overseas. That’s the #1 total of all time, behind the prior record holder, 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($150M).

Water has also earned $247M from IMAX globally. That’s the #2 total of all time, behind only 2009’s Avatar ($270M) – but that includes Avatar’s 2010 and 2022 re-releases, meaning Water is now the #1 IMAX title of all time globally based on original release alone.

The Chosen Season 3 Finale

Fathom Events’ faith-based title The Chosen Season 3 Finale finished the weekend with a $3.6M debut. The title premiered last Thursday, one day before the weekend began. It was actually the top film of that day with $1.6M, ahead of Way of Water with $1.0M.

Compared to other comparable titles, Chosen’s opening weekend was:

• -58% below last November’s The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 ($8.7M)
• -14% below 2021’s Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers ($4.2M) after opening on a Wednesday
• +42% above January’s Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist
• +66% above last September’s Lifemark ($2.1M)
• +80% above last December’s I Heard the Bells ($2.0M) after opening on a Thursday

Elsewhere at the box office

In its seventh frame, the Universal / DreamWorks animated sequel Puss in Boots: The Last Wish declines only -24% to $7.9M, the mildest percentage decline of any film in wide release.

It now stands at $151.2M total, higher than almost any pre-release projections. This weekend it also exceeded the $149.2M total of 2011’s original Puss in Boots.

In its third frame, Sony Pictures’ thriller Missing declines -34% to $3.7M.

After opening +51% ahead of 2018’s Searching, its total now stands at only +17% ahead through the third weekend of wide release.

Last weekend, Yash Raj Films’ Indian Hindi-language action thriller Pathaan began in third place with $6.8M, higher than industry projections which were around $5M.

In its sophomore frame, it falls -60% to $2.7M. Among prominent Indian films, that’s a steeper sophomore drop than 2016’s Dangal (-35%) and 2022’s RRR (-47%), though milder than 2017’s Baahubali 2: The Conclusion (-67%).

Weekend comparisons

Total box office this weekend came in around $68.8M. Compared to the same weekend last frame, last year, and in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:

YTD comparisons

Year-to-date box office stands around $629.5M, which is:

Top distributors

Grouped by parent company, the YTD leaders are:

1. Disney ($246.5M)
2. Universal ($206.0M)
3. Sony Pictures ($89.4M)
4. Warner Bros. ($8.6M)
5. Paramount ($6.2M)

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates: