Weekend Box Office: Knock at the Cabin Ends Avatar’s Run at No. 1; 80 for Brady Starts in Second

Photo Credits: Universal ("Knock at the Cabin"); Paramount ("80 for Brady"); Fathom Events & Angel Studios ("The Chosen: Season 3 Finale)"

Knock at the Cabin

Universal’s horror-thriller Knock at the Cabin opened the door to $14.2M in first place.

Measures against other comparable titles from writer-director M. Night Shyamalan, Cabin’s opening is:

  • -15% below 2021’s Old ($16.8M)
  • -44% below 2015’s The Visit ($25.4M)

Compared to other similar February horror releases, it’s:

  • -57% below 2017’s Get Out ($33.3M)
  • -49% below 2020’s The Invisible Man ($28.2M)
  • -32% below 2012’s The Woman in Black ($20.8M)
  • +49% above 2019’s Happy Death Day 2U ($9.4M)

Cabin’s estimated audience was 58% male, 62% younger than 35, and only 39% white. The film received a disappointing “C” CinemaScore.

Overseas, the film opened with $7.0M in 60 markets, for a $21.2M global opening. For comparison, that global opening is lower than some industry projections’ domestic opening alone.

80 for Brady

Paramount’s comedy 80 for Brady threw a touchdown, or at least kicked a field goal, with a $12.5M debut in second place.

Compared to some other similar titles, its opening is:

  • -23% below 2013’s Last Vegas ($16.3M)
  • -8% below 2018’s Book Club ($13.5M)
  • -2% below January’s A Man Called Otto ($12.8M)
  • +4% above 2017’s Going in Style ($11.9M)

[Read Boxoffice PRO’s interview with 80 for Brady director Kyle Marvin here.]

Avatar: The Way of Water (domestic weekend)

20th Century Studios’ sci-fi sequel Avatar: The Way of Water saw a -32% decline to $10.8M and third place, its first frame where it didn’t lead.

There was still great news for the film at the domestic box office: it claimed the #12 eighth weekend of all time.

All time, Water has earned the:

Weekend #

Gross

All-time ranking

1

$134.1M

#37

2

$63.3M

#30

3

$67.4M

#3

4

$45.8M

#3

5

$32.8M

#3

6

$20.1M

#7

7

$15.9M

#7

8

$10.8M

#12

Among all eighth weekends, it ranks behind only:

  1. 1997’s Titanic ($23.0M)
  2. 2009’s Avatar ($22.8M)
  3. 2014’s American Sniper ($16.4M)
  4. 1993’s Aladdin ($15.6M)
  5. 2013’s Frozen ($14.7M)
  6. 2002’s Chicago ($12.7M)
  7. 1990’s Home Alone ($12.6M)
  8. 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick ($12.3M)
  9. 2016’s La La Land ($12.2M)
  10. 1990’s Dances with Wolves ($11.8M)
  11. 1998’s There’s Something About Mary ($10.9M)

With $636.4M domestically, Water now ranks #10 all time, behind only:

  1. 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.6M)
  2. 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($858.3M)
  3. 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home ($814.1M)
  4. 2009’s Avatar ($785.2M)
  5. 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick ($718.7M)
  6. 2018’s Black Panther ($700.4M)
  7. 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War ($678.8M)
  8. 1997’s Titanic ($659.3M)
  9. 2015’s Jurassic World ($653.4M)

That also makes Water the #2 release from 2022 so far, despite only achieving the #5 opening weekend of that year.

Overall, it still ranks behind the total of Top Gun: Maverick, at least for the moment. However, it’s currently running +2.9% ahead of Maverick through the equivalent point in release. However, that’s down from running +3.9% ahead after last weekend.

Water is also running +1.1% ahead of 2009’s original Avatar through the equivalent point in release. However, that’s down from running +4.2% ahead after last weekend.

Avatar: The Way of Water (overseas / global)

Water declined -36% overseas this weekend, slightly steeper than its -32% domestic drop.

Overseas, Water has earned $1.53B total. That’s the #3 overseas total of all time, behind only:

  1. 2009’s Avatar ($2.13B)
  2. 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($1.94B)

Globally, Water has earned $2.17B total. That’s the #4 biggest global total of all time, behind only:

  1. 2009’s Avatar ($2.92B)
  2. 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($2.79B)
  3. 1997’s Titanic ($2.19B)

Water already surpassed Maverick to become the biggest global release from 2022. Compared to Maverick’s $1.48B global total, Water is now +47% ahead and counting.

Water’s top overseas totals to date include:

  1. China ($240.6M)
  2. France ($141.5M)
  3. Germany ($130.7M)
  4. South Korea ($105.5M)
  5. U.K. ($88.2M)

So far, the film has earned 70.7% of its global total from overseas. That’s slightly less than Avatar during its original run (72.7%), but notably higher than Maverick (51.7%), thanks in large part due Water receiving a China release which Maverick did not.

Water’s China earnings are +18% ahead of the amount Avatar earned there during its original run ($202.6M). Water is also the #2 biggest film from 2022 in that country, behind only local title Water Gate Bridge.

According to numbers from Endata, Water is also the #39 film of all time in China. Among Hollywood titles, it’s #8 all time in China, behind only:

    1. Avengers: Endgame
    2. The Fate of the Furious
    3. Furious 7
    4. Avengers: Infinity War
    5. Aquaman
    6. Transformers: Age of Extinction
    7. Venom

Avatar: The Way of Water (IMAX)

Water has earned $85.7M from IMAX domestically. That’s the #3 highest total of all time, behind only 2009’s Avatar ($140M) and 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($125M).

Water has earned $170M from IMAX overseas. That’s the #1 total of all time, behind the prior record holder, 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($150M).

Water has also earned $247M from IMAX globally. That’s the #2 total of all time, behind only 2009’s Avatar ($270M) – but that includes Avatar’s 2010 and 2022 re-releases, meaning Water is now the #1 IMAX title of all time globally based on original release alone.

The Chosen Season 3 Finale

Fathom Events’ faith-based title The Chosen Season 3 Finale finished the weekend with a $3.6M debut. The title premiered last Thursday, one day before the weekend began. It was actually the top film of that day with $1.6M, ahead of Way of Water with $1.0M.

Compared to other comparable titles, Chosen’s opening weekend was:

  • -58% below last November’s The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 ($8.7M)
  • -14% below 2021’s Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers ($4.2M) after opening on a Wednesday
  • +42% above January’s Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist
  • +66% above last September’s Lifemark ($2.1M)
  • +80% above last December’s I Heard the Bells ($2.0M) after opening on a Thursday

Elsewhere at the box office

In its seventh frame, the Universal / DreamWorks animated sequel Puss in Boots: The Last Wish declines only -24% to $7.9M, the mildest percentage decline of any film in wide release.

It now stands at $151.2M total, higher than almost any pre-release projections. This weekend it also exceeded the $149.2M total of 2011’s original Puss in Boots.

In its third frame, Sony Pictures’ thriller Missing declines -34% to $3.7M.

After opening +51% ahead of 2018’s Searching, its total now stands at only +17% ahead through the third weekend of wide release.

Last weekend, Yash Raj Films’ Indian Hindi-language action thriller Pathaan began in third place with $6.8M, higher than industry projections which were around $5M.

In its sophomore frame, it falls -60% to $2.7M. Among prominent Indian films, that’s a steeper sophomore drop than 2016’s Dangal (-35%) and 2022’s RRR (-47%), though milder than 2017’s Baahubali 2: The Conclusion (-67%).

Weekend comparisons

Total box office this weekend came in around $68.8M. Compared to the same weekend last frame, last year, and in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019:

Weekend

Total

This weekend is:

Notes

Last weekend

$72.4M

-5%

Avatar: The Way of Water led for a seventh consecutive frame ($15.9M)

Same weekend in 2022

$59.7M

+15%

Jackass Forever led ($23.1M)

Same weekend in 2019

$73.4M

-6%

Glass led for a third consecutive frame ($9.5M)

YTD comparisons

Year-to-date box office stands around $629.5M, which is:

Year

YTD total

2023 YTD after last weekend:

2023 YTD now:

Trendline

2022

$417.5M

+47.7%

+50.7%

Up

2019

$893.0M

-32.0%

-29.5%

Up

Top distributors

Grouped by parent company, the YTD leaders are:

  1. Disney ($246.5M)
  2. Universal ($206.0M)
  3. Sony Pictures ($89.4M)
  4. Warner Bros. ($8.6M)
  5. Paramount ($6.2M)

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates:

Title  Estimated weekend  % change Locations Location change Average  Total  Weekend Distributor
Knock at the Cabin $14,200,000   3,643   $3,898 $14,200,000 1 Universal
80 for Brady $12,500,000   3,912   $3,195 $12,500,000 1 Paramount
Avatar: The Way of Water $10,800,000 -32% 3,310 -290 $3,263 $636,420,442 8 20th Century Studios [Disney]
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $7,950,000 -24% 3,452   $2,303 $151,292,670 7 Universal
A Man Called Otto $4,175,000 -37% 3,407 -550 $1,225 $53,003,403 6 Sony Pictures
M3GAN $3,800,000 -39% 2,835 -581 $1,340 $87,597,375 5 Universal
Missing $3,725,000 -34% 2,565 -460 $1,452 $23,017,094 3 Sony Pictures
The Chosen Season 3 Finale $3,641,538   1,731   $2,104 $5,308,245 1 Fathom Events
Pathaan $2,709,905 -60% 683 -12 $3,967 $14,287,848 2 Yash Raj Films
Plane $2,210,000 -42% 2,203 -649 $1,003 $28,880,732 4 Lionsgate
Infinity Pool $900,000 -64% 1,750 -85 $514 $4,332,078 2 Neon
Everything Everywhere All At Once $528,928 -46% 935 -465 $566 $72,015,067   A24
The Whale $421,934 -57% 1,015 -706 $416 $15,763,761 9 A24
The Fabelmans $275,000 -63% 1,054 -908 $261 $16,652,605 13 Universal
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $218,000 -71% 430 -600 $507 $453,469,600 13 Walt Disney
Maybe I Do $210,000 -62% 389 -76 $540 $1,003,242 2 Vertical Entertainment
Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist $195,697 -92% 352 -1,055 $556 $3,532,410 2 Fathom Events
Close $118,071 92% 20 16 $5,904 $202,493 10 A24
The Banshees of Inisherin $100,000 -72% 410 -795 $244 $10,139,521 16 Searchlight [Disney]
TÁR $91,000 -48% 439 -98 $207 $6,337,660 18 Focus Features [Universal]
Skinamarink $36,000 -73% 62 -224 $581 $1,984,760 4 IFC Midnight
Violent Night $31,000 122% 71 -4 $437 $49,763,780 10 Universal
Aftersun $27,539 -39% 25 n/c $1,102 $1,465,118 16 A24
Full Time $2,139   1   $2,139 $2,139 1 Music Box Films
Photo Credits: Universal ("Knock at the Cabin"); Paramount ("80 for Brady"); Fathom Events & Angel Studios ("The Chosen: Season 3 Finale)"