Weekend Estimates: Dumbo Lifts Off to $48M+ Debut; Us to Add $32M; Unplanned Earns $5M Opening

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Saturday Update: Disney and Tim Burton’s live action remake of Dumbo earned an estimated $15.318 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $2.6 million. That puts the film on course for a first place debut atop the weekend box office with what we’re projecting will be close to a $50 million tally.

That projection comes in toward the lower end of forecasts, but is still respectable and close to Disney’s own $50 million expectations entering the weekend.

Dumbo‘s Thursday-to-Friday performance offered encouraging potential for the weekend ahead as it earned 5.89x its Thursday night gross on Friday proper — topping the Thu-to-Fri multiple of How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World last month (5.79x). The latter film earned a $55 million opening weekend off its $17.4 million first day.

Among other Disney live action efforts on opening day, Dumbo stacks up:

  • 50 percent ahead of A Wrinkle In Time ($10.2 million)
  • 52 percent behind The Jungle Book (2016) ($32.0 million)
  • 33 percent behind Cinderella (2015) ($23.0 million)
  • 120 percent ahead of Pete’s Dragon (2016) ($6.95 million)

Jordan Peele’s Us added an estimated $10.19 million to begin its second frame off 65 percent from opening day last week. Crossing the $100 million threshold in an impressive eight days, the hit thriller has tallied $104.8 million domestically thus far. We’re projecting around a $32 million weekend.

Captain Marvel eased 40 percent from last Friday to $5.5 million yesterday, now standing with a strong $338.8 million domestic haul. With Friday’s earnings, the film overtook Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s final domestic gross of $334.2 million to become the eighth-highest grossing film in the MCU’s 21-film library. Its fourth weekend of release looks to top $20 million.

Meanwhile, Pure Flix’s Unplanned came in ahead of expectations with a $2.96 million opening day — already besting pre-release tracking. However, nearly half that total ($1.5 million) includes earnings from Thursday night previews and private sellout events scattered throughout the week before. The faith-based audience drove those sales, indicating a potentially front-loaded weekend. We’re currently projecting slightly over a $5 million weekend.

Early weekend estimates are below, to be followed by updated studio estimates on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, MAR. 29 – SUN, MAR. 31

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Dumbo $49,000,000 4,259 $11,505 $49,000,000 1 Walt Disney Pictures
2 Us (2019) $32,000,000 -55% 3,743 2 $8,549 $126,614,440 2 Universal Pictures
3 Captain Marvel $20,500,000 -40% 3,985 -293 $5,144 $20,500,333 4 Disney
4 Five Feet Apart $6,000,000 -30% 2,846 -20 $2,108 $35,625,601 3 CBS Films
5 Unplanned $5,200,000 1,059 $4,910 $5,200,000 1 Pure Flix
6 Wonder Park $5,000,000 -43% 3,304 -534 $1,513 $37,941,787 3 Paramount
7 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $4,300,000 -34% 2,785 -562 $1,544 $153,034,010 9 Universal / DreamWorks Animation
8 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $2,700,000 -39% 1,923 -264 $1,404 $70,039,170 5 Lionsgate
9 Gloria Bell $1,000,000 -39% 1,127 473 $887 $4,067,006 4 A24

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Hotel Mumbai $3,300,000 3647% 924 920 $3,571 $3,415,479 2 Bleecker Street
2 The Beach Bum $1,500,000 105 $14,286 $1,500,000 1 Neon
3 No Manches Frida 2 $1,000,000 -44% 423 -49 $2,364 $8,147,427 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
4 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $670,000 -42% 801 -588 $836 $104,722,433 10 Warner Bros.
5 The Mustang $630,000 181% 181 143 $3,481 $1,034,179 3 Focus Features
6 Alita: Battle Angel $475,000 -56% 676 -763 $703 $84,881,509 7 20th Century Fox
7 The Aftermath $350,000 190% 161 135 $2,174 $596,753 3 Fox Searchlight
8 Isn’t It Romantic $270,000 -57% 460 -458 $587 $48,110,044 7 Warner Bros.
9 Green Book $250,000 -59% 447 -394 $559 $84,468,536 20 Universal Pictures
10 What Men Want $195,000 -37% 309 -95 $631 $54,398,779 8 Paramount
11 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $175,000 -31% 218 -60 $803 $190,169,431 16 Sony / Columbia
12 Cold Pursuit $69,000 -41% 142 -82 $486 $31,950,722 8 Lionsgate / Summit

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Mary Poppins Returns $68,000 -19% 84 -50 $810 $171,930,072 15 Disney
2 The Kid $45,000 -64% 77 -90 $584 $1,451,715 4 Lionsgate
3 Ralph Breaks the Internet $42,000 -59% 92 -53 $457 $201,050,343 19 Disney
4 Faith, Hope & Love $19,000 -17% 9 -8 $2,111 $136,636 3 ArtAffects Entertainment

Friday Update: Disney reports today that Dumbo took flight with an estimated $2.6 million start from Thursday night’s first shows on the domestic side. For comparison purposes, that registers:

  • 13 percent behind How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World ($3.0 million)
  • 24 percent ahead of The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part ($2.1 million)
  • 100 percent ahead of A Wrinkle In Time ($1.3 million)
  • 38 percent behind The Jungle Book (2016) ($4.2 million)
  • 13 percent ahead of Cinderella (2015) ($2.3 million)
  • 30 percent ahead of Oz the Great and Powerful ($2.0 million)

Given the usual caveats about how very few Thursday starts are created equal, there won’t be much more insight about how the weekend is expected to play out until Saturday morning reveals Friday’s overall estimates. Our pre-weekend forecast can be read here.

Also debuting last night, Pure Flix’s Unplanned pulled a healthy $1.5 million from what the studio defines as “Thursday preview shows + pre-release buyouts combined.” That positions the film to beat pre-release expectations as we began earlier this week to expect may occur.

Meanwhile, sources report that Us added $4.5 million yesterday, giving it an updated domestic cume of $94.7 million through just seven days of play. The film is expected to generate a strong sophomore weekend performance with no new direct competition in the market.

More updates to follow throughout the weekend.

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