Weekend Estimates: Frozen II Pacing for $80M/$120M+ 3-Day/5-Day Holiday Record; Knives Out Targeting Strong $25M/$40M+ Debut

Saturday Update: Disney’s Frozen II added another $34.03 million on Friday, its eighth day of domestic release. The blockbuster sequel has tallied an impressive $236.4 million to date as it remains on pace to best The Hunger Games: Catching Fire‘s standing three-day Thanksgiving weekend record of $74.2 million six years ago. Our projections for the Friday-through-Sunday portion of the weekend remain at $85 million this morning, and $123.5 million for the Wednesday-Sunday five-day weekend — both close to pre-weekend forecasts. The latter figure would also top Catching Fire‘s five-day Thanksgiving record ($109.9 million).

Lionsgate and Rian Johnson’s Knives Out continued to elevate its breakout status with $10.693 million on Friday, giving the pic $25.37 million domestically through three days of play. We’re now projecting around $27 million for the three-day weekend, which would translate to an ultimate $41.7 million five-day opening since Wednesday.

Ford v Ferrari lapped around another $5.42 million yesterday, now standing at $73.2 million domestically. This three-day weekend should register around $13.6 million, giving it just shy of $20 million during the five-day holiday period.

In fourth, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood earned $5 million on Black Friday for an updated eight-day domestic cume of $27.5 million. We’re projecting a $12.9 million and $18.4 million for the respective three-day and five-day splits over the holiday weekend.

Queen & Slim earned $4.31 million on Friday as it continues to perform slightly ahead of expectations. The adaptation stands at $8.42 million through three days of release. Current weekend projections stand at $11 million for Fri-Sun and $15.1 million for the five-day debut.

Three-day weekend estimates are below. Studio updates to follow on Sunday, followed by final results on Monday afternoon.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, NOV. 29 – SUN, DEC. 1

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Frozen II $85,000,000 -35% 4,098 -342 $20,742 $287,323,344 2 Disney
2 Knives Out $27,000,000 3,461 $7,801 $41,695,000 1 Lionsgate
3 Ford v. Ferrari $13,600,000 -14% 3,446 -82 $3,947 $81,382,779 3 20th Century Fox
4 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood $12,900,000 -3% 3,235 0 $3,988 $35,413,989 2 Sony Pictures
5 Queen & Slim $11,000,000 1,690 $6,509 $15,110,000 1 Universal Pictures
6 21 Bridges $5,800,000 -37% 2,665 0 $2,176 $19,440,000 2 STX Entertainment
7 Playing with Fire $4,300,000 -5% 2,679 -81 $1,605 $39,303,808 4 Paramount Pictures
8 Midway $4,100,000 -12% 2,375 -252 $1,726 $50,422,625 4 Lionsgate
9 Last Christmas $2,000,000 -35% 1,852 -559 $1,080 $31,678,680 4 Universal Pictures
10 Joker $2,000,000 -27% 1,146 -264 $1,745 $330,572,000 9 Warner Bros.
11 The Good Liar $1,500,000 -56% 2,003 -451 $749 $14,820,000 3 Warner Bros.
12 Charlie’s Angels $1,200,000 -63% 3,156 -296 $380 $16,770,171 3 Sony Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $1,300,000 -37% 991 -614 $1,312 $111,519,957 7 Disney
2 Jojo Rabbit $1,300,000 -18% 708 -79 $1,836 $18,437,635 7 Fox Searchlight
3 Doctor Sleep $880,000 -52% 877 -599 $1,003 $30,540,000 4 Warner Bros.
4 Terminator: Dark Fate $790,000 -37% 782 -240 $1,010 $61,103,256 5 Paramount
5 Zombieland: Double Tap $350,000 -35% 341 -114 $1,026 $72,212,044 7 Sony Pictures
6 Black and Blue $180,000 -44% 179 -81 $1,006 $21,723,179 6 Sony / Screen Gems
7 Gemini Man $65,000 -2% 114 6 $570 $48,525,393 8 Paramount Pictures

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Lion King $19,000 -43% 44 -43 $432 $543,636,567 20 Walt Disney Pictures
2 Toy Story 4 $16,000 -1% 34 -14 $471 $434,038,296 24 Disney
3 Ad Astra $13,000 -55% 18 -32 $722 $50,165,386 11 20th Century Fox

Friday Report: Disney’s Frozen II is pacing for a Thanksgiving weekend record as it took in $23.78 million on Wednesday and $14.718 million on Thursday, bringing the total cume to $202.3 million domestically after seven days.

Based on its current trajectory, the blockbuster sequel remains on track to meet our forecasts of beating Catching Fire‘s holiday record six years ago. We’re currently projecting $80 – 85 million for the three-day weekend, translating to a $115 – 125 million five-day haul.

Meanwhile, Knives Out is breaking out beyond even our optimistic forecasts as it stands at $14.7 million after just two days. The pic earned $8.495 million on opening day Wednesday (including all sneak preview earnings from Tuesday night and last weekend), followed by another $6.2 million on Thanksgiving Day. Updated projections stand around $27 – 32 million for the three-day weekend and $40 – 47 million for the overall five-day opening.

More to come throughout the weekend…