Weekend Estimates: Shazam! Champion Again ($24M+); Little Healthy ($15M+); Hellboy ($12M) & Missing Link ($6M) Soft; After Beats Expectations ($7.7M)

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Saturday Update: As expected, Shazam! is on course to finish atop the box office again this weekend as it added $6.365 million on Friday, bringing its eight-day domestic haul to $76.1 million. The strongly received DC film from Warner Bros. looks to top $24+ million in its second frame.

Little scored a healthy debut for Universal with $5.37 million on opening day (inclusive of Thursday night shows). Comping not far behind the $6.59 million first day of What Men Want earlier this year, this high concept comedy marks another counter-programming success for producer Will Packer. We’re expecting around $15 million+ for the weekend based on current projections.

Beyond those titles, unfortunately, two of the weekend’s key openers significantly disappointed. Lionsgate’s Hellboy remake proved to open well below expectations with $4.93 million on opening day. That comes in 36 percent behind Ghost In the Shell‘s $7.66 million debut two years ago, and just ahead of Underworld: Blood Wars‘ $4.87 million first day several months before that. Poor reviews and a general lack of enthusiasm among even die hard fans — who still hold Guillermo del Toro’s previous two films in high regard — are contributing to the underwhelming start, which will likely give way to significant front-loading considering the month’s superhero competition. We’re projecting around $12 million for the weekend.

Opening even further below expectations based on pre-release tracking, Missing Link scored a lukewarm $1.611 million opening day yesterday. Despite positive reviews and the typically reliable Laika brand name — which has never debuted a film below a $12.6 million weekend (Kubo and the Two Strings) — the film’s limited marketing push, as well as the spotty history of stop-motion animation among today’s young audiences, are contributing to the under-performance. While a strong weekend multiple and staying power in the weeks ahead are generally still expected, we’re now projecting around $6 million for the opening frame.

Last but not least among the openers, and notably ahead of expectations, After took in $2.9 million on opening day Friday for distributor Aviron. That nearly doubles the $1.49 million first day of Midnight Sun last year, against which After had been closely tracking ahead of its debut. The studio projects a solid $7.7 million opening weekend.

Meanwhile, among holdovers: Pet Sematary grossed $2.93 million to begin its second frame, standing at $34.1 million after eight days; Dumbo added $2.27 million on Friday for an updated $83 million domestic cume; Captain Marvel tacked on another $2.21 million and cracked $380.1 million domestically; and, Us added $2.09 million for a new tally of $158.6 million.

Early weekend estimates are below with studio updates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, APR. 12 – SUN, APR. 14

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Shazam! $24,500,000 -54% 4,306 89 $5,690 $94,273,013 2 Warner Bros.
2 Little (2019) $15,400,000 2,667 $5,774 $15,400,000 1 Universal Pictures
3 Hellboy $12,000,000 3,303 $3,633 $12,000,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit
4 Dumbo $9,300,000 -49% 3,706 -553 $2,509 $90,059,162 3 Walt Disney Pictures
5 Pet Sematary $9,000,000 -63% 3,585 0 $2,510 $40,121,660 2 Paramount Pictures
6 Captain Marvel $8,400,000 -32% 2,975 -598 $2,824 $386,313,581 6 Disney
7 After (2019) $7,700,000 2,138 $3,601 $7,700,000 1 Aviron Pictures
8 Us (2019) $6,900,000 -50% 2,768 -744 $2,493 $163,452,425 4 Universal Pictures
9 Missing Link $6,000,000 3,413 $1,758 $6,000,000 1 United Artists Releasing
10 The Best of Enemies $2,200,000 -51% 1,705 0 $1,290 $8,301,570 2 STX Entertainment
11 Unplanned $1,700,000 -48% 1,402 -114 $1,213 $15,730,305 3 Pure Flix
12 Five Feet Apart $1,500,000 -58% 1,473 -1011 $1,018 $43,861,394 5 CBS Films
13 Wonder Park $650,000 -70% 1,172 -1109 $555 $43,372,568 5 Paramount

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $580,000 -71% 822 -1106 $706 $157,802,605 11 Universal / DreamWorks Animation
2 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $320,000 -72% 475 -626 $674 $72,705,430 7 Lionsgate
3 No Manches Frida 2 $180,000 -56% 135 -140 $1,333 $9,042,565 5 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
4 The Aftermath $150,000 -58% 234 -110 $641 $1,420,397 5 Fox Searchlight

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Cold Pursuit $40,000 -41% 92 -26 $435 $32,121,587 10 Lionsgate / Summit
2 Ash is Purest White $32,000 24 $1,333 $32,000 5 Cohen Media Group
3 The Kid $9,500 -15% 49 27 $194 $1,500,057 6 Lionsgate
4 Faith, Hope & Love $7,800 -25% 6 -2 $1,300 $176,309 5 ArtAffects Entertainment
5 Girls of the Sun $7,750 8 $969 $7,750 1 Cohen Media Group

Friday Update: Lionsgate reports this morning that Hellboy earned an estimated $1.38 million from Thursday night shows at an estimated 2,700 locations. That registers 38 percent ahead of Resident Evil: The Final Chapter‘s $1.0 million start in January 2017, while coming in 23 percent behind Ghost In the Shell‘s $1.8 million kickoff in late March of the same year.

Meanwhile, Universal’s Little is off to a fair start with $735K earned from shows beginning at 7pm in 2,200 locations last night. That’s 26.5 percent off I Feel Pretty‘s $1.0 million start last April, although comps for original comedies are even less reliable than those of trend-heavy franchise pics.

Meanwhile, After banked $550K last night, while Missing Link reportedly took in $230K.

More updates throughout the weekend, and be sure to check out our earlier Weekend Forecast.

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