Friday, April 12 Update: The table below accidentally excluded Tuesday grosses from the running totals across all films as projected through the end of the weekend. They have been amended. We apologize for any confusion.
Original Report: April’s second frame will host nearly a handful of new wide releases, but will any of them be able to unseat Shazam! from the top spot?
Opening Weekend Ranges:
Hellboy: $14 – 20 million
Little: $12 – 17 million
Missing Link: $9 – 14 million
After: $2 – 7 million
PROS:
- Shazam! is expected to continue its strong early run thanks to very positive word of mouth on the heels of last week’s $53.5 million debut. Appeal to a variety of audiences remains a key strength.
- Hellboy brings with it a loyal fan base that helped drive the first two films in the franchise to respectable debuts of $23.2 million and $34.5 million in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Traditional tracking has positioned interest similar to films like last year’s Tomb Raider.
- Little claims the advantage of opening in a market largely absent of straight-up comedies, making it one of the top counter-programming candidates of the weekend.
- Missing Link similarly aims for an audience that isn’t gravitating toward one film at the moment, with the added benefit of strong reviews and brand name goodwill thanks to the critical and commercial success of past Laika stop-motion animated releases.
- After will target teen date night audiences and fans of One Direction thanks to a built-in audience familiar with the source young adult novels.
CONS:
- Hellboy faces the unfortunate timing of opening one week after Shazam!, while also coming on the heels of Avengers: Endgame‘s record-breaking ticket sales over the past week. Simultaneously, the absence of acclaimed filmmaker Guillermo del Toro’s presence for this reboot has left some of the fan base skeptical. The R rating may further serve to limit the target audience to older fans. The film’s pre-release metrics are also largely similar to Resident Evil: The Final Chapter and Underworld: Blood War.
- Little has been tracking behind the levels of What Men Want and Night School, though that’s generally to be expected.
- Though Laika titles have been an exception to the rule, stop-motion animation remains somewhat niche in its ability to beat box office expectations among modern kid audiences. This will be a key factor to consider for Missing Link‘s opening.
- After opens at a time when young adult adaptations have misfired more often than succeeded as the genre has burnt out. It’s currently tracking close to the level of last year’s Midnight Sun.
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decrease 10 – 15 percent from the same weekend last year when Rampage ($35.8 million) and Truth or Dare ($18.7 million) debuted in a strong April market that saw A Quiet Place pull a strong $32.97 million sophomore frame. That weekend’s top ten generated $131.8 million.
Weekend Forecast
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 14 | % Change from Last Wknd |
| Shazam! | Warner Bros. | $26,500,000 | $96,800,000 | -50% |
| Hellboy (2019) | Lionsgate / Summit | $16,800,000 | $16,800,000 | NEW |
| Little | Universal | $14,300,000 | $14,300,000 | NEW |
| Missing Link | United Artists Releasing | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | NEW |
| Dumbo | Disney | $10,400,000 | $91,200,000 | -43% |
| Pet Sematary (2019) | Paramount | $10,200,000 | $40,900,000 | -58% |
| Captain Marvel | Disney / Marvel | $8,000,000 | $386,000,000 | -36% |
| Us | Universal | $7,500,000 | $164,100,000 | -46% |
| After (2019) | Aviron | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | NEW |
| The Best of Enemies | STX Entertainment | $2,400,000 | $8,300,000 | -46% |
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.
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