The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | June 12 – 14, 2026
Week 24 | June 12 – 14, 2026
1. Disclosure Day
Universal Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $40M – $50M
Showtime Market Share: 18%
Pros
- Steven Spielberg, the biggest helmer in box office history, returns to his signature UFO genre with the original sci-fi tentpole Disclosure Day. His previous alien movies Close Encounters of the Third Kind, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, War of the Worlds, and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull represent four of his largest-grossing titles, with over $1.1B unadjusted between them. Despite initial rumors, Disclosure Day has zero connection to any of these previous films, with neither a guaranteed draw in the lead nor an abundance of major wow set pieces. Based on current reviews (89% on Rotten Tomatoes) and Spielberg charming the press during the promo tour, we expect solid results from the 35+ age group. Our current comp has it performing similarly to Jordan Peele’s Nope (2022), which opened to $44M and topped out at $123M in its domestic run. However, a lack of youth appeal might mean a tough climb in the ensuing weeks.
Cons
- Spielberg has been on a relative cold streak at the box office for some time, kicking off the decade with his big friendly bomb The BFG ($55.48M domestic), followed later by two other financial misfires, West Side Story ($38.5M) and The Fabelmans ($17.3M). The director still has plenty of cache (Ready Player One earned over $600M WW), but Universal is putting most of its marketing chips on the Spielberg name combined with aliens, which is risky during a year when establishment filmmakers have been outshone by young low budget helmers. Factor in a lot of distractions competing for attention, such as good weather, the NBA finals (which may reach their peak by the weekend), and the kickoff to the World Cup, all of which claim people’s time. Disclosure Day should top the market with an opening weekend in the $40M’s, but will get guillotined by Disney’s unstoppable Toy Story 5 in its sophomore frame.
2. Scary Movie
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $22M – $27M
Showtime Market Share: 14%
Pros
- Paramount won the weekend with their sixth installment in the spoof franchise Scary Movie, earning a $54.3M debut. As stated on Sunday, the heat from Scream 7 and an overall appetite for horror (even funny horror) combined with nostalgia for returning leads Marlon Wayans, Shawn Wayans, and Anna Faris made this one an instant hit. This was the biggest opening of the series, and with that kind of momentum, it should not have a hard time legging it out past $100M.
Cons
- The 26% Rotten Tomatoes critical plus a “C+” CinemaScore combined with fierce competition from Mr. Spielberg means a likely large drop for this title. Across the board, the Scary Movie franchise has traditionally seen drops of around 50-60% in its sophomore outing, and we expect this one to follow that pattern. This was trumpeted as a return to form for R-rated comedy, though the IP element may have been the stronger force than the rating.
3. Obsession
Focus Features | Week 5
Weekend Range: $12M – $17M
Showtime Market Share: 10%
Pros
- Even as Backrooms dropped sharply in its sophomore frame, Focus Features’ Obsession continues to overperform. It keeps on holding on to screens. With $156.1M it has already basically matched The Mandalorian and Grogu ($156.85M). At this point, we’re taking bets on how long it stays on the Top 10. After climbing three consecutive weeks, it only fell 7% in Frame 4 with $25.38M… which is still better than its second frame.
Cons
- There’s really no downside to a $1M horror flick grossing over 150x its budget. The worst we can say is it will suffer its steepest percentage drop in Frame 5, but when your steepest thus far was -7% that’s a good place to be. Why this particular film struck the kind of chord it has is hard to say, but the audience director Curry Barker cultivated online has come out in force, with GAs following suit. It’s almost as if he made a wish on a monkey’s paw…
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