Weekend Box Office Estimates: Onward Hits the Road w/ $40M+ Debut; Invisible Man Adds $14M+ as The Way Back Starts at $8M+

Saturday Update: Disney / Pixar’s Onward bowed to an estimated $12.1 million opening day, including $2 million from Thursday night previews and $650K from February 29 special screenings. The studio’s latest original film is targeting an opening weekend slightly over $40 million at its current pace.

Yesterday’s debut registered slightly below expectations, particularly given the brand names and strong reviews in play (even when considering this is an original film). However, as noted in our earlier forecasts, a growing factor had been the recent breakout and semi-breakout of Sonic the Hedgehog and The Call of the Wild among family audiences. The former in particular has shown strong appeal to young and adult males, two demos Onward is targeting heavily.

For comp purposes, Onward‘s first day registered 24 percent ahead of The Addams Family ($9.7 million), 17 percent behind The LEGO Batman Movie ($14.5 million), and 38 percent behind Zootopia ($19.5) million.

Universal’s The Invisible Man added $4.31 million yesterday to kick off its second frame, now standing at $38.3 million after eight days domestically. The week-to-week decline was a bit sharper than we expected, though most of that gap could be attributed to the film’s strong PLF footprint last week (which it lost to Onward this weekend). Look for a still-strong sophomore frame around $14.6 million.

Warner Bros.’ The Way Back posted $2.6 million on opening day in third place after opting out of Thursday night previews. That’s ahead of the studio’s recent adult-driven dramas like Richard Jewell ($1.56 million) and The Good Liar ($1.64 million). Opening weekend looks to net around $8.4 million.

Meanwhile, Emma. expanded in semi-wide release at 1,565 locations with $1.67 million on Friday. The period comedy has earned $3.56 million stateside thus far and should ring in around $5.4 million this weekend.

Early weekend estimates are below, to be followed by studio estimates on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, MAR. 6 – SUN, MAR. 8

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Onward $42,000,000 4,310 $9,745 $42,000,000 1 Disney
2 The Invisible Man $14,600,000 -48% 3,610 0 $4,044 $52,143,570 2 Universal Pictures
3 The Way Back $8,400,000 2,718 $3,091 $8,400,000 1 Warner Bros.
4 Sonic The Hedgehog $8,100,000 -50% 3,717 -460 $2,179 $140,918,152 4 Paramount
5 The Call Of The Wild $7,300,000 -45% 3,914 49 $1,865 $57,783,738 3 20th Century Studios
6 Emma. $5,400,000 366% 1,565 1468 $3,450 $7,292,065 3 Focus Features
7 Bad Boys For Life $3,100,000 -29% 2,159 -549 $1,436 $202,078,103 8 Sony / Columbia
8 Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) $2,100,000 -49% 2,173 -951 $966 $82,500,582 5 Warner Bros.
9 Impractical Jokers: The Movie $1,700,000 -52% 1,725 -175 $986 $1,700,000 3 truTV
10 1917 $1,400,000 -48% 1,535 -697 $912 $158,324,094 11 Universal Pictures
11 Jumanji: The Next Level $1,400,000 -36% 1,403 -408 $998 $315,931,594 13 Sony Pictures
12 Brahms: The Boy II $1,200,000 -54% 1,355 -796 $886 $11,731,854 3 STX Entertainment
13 Fantasy Island $895,000 -62% 1,362 -1362 $657 $25,825,897 4 Sony Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising $1,400,000 -76% 690 -482 $2,029 $1,400,000 2 FUNimation Entertainment
2 Parasite $585,000 -61% 625 -699 $936 $52,758,454 22 NEON
3 Portrait of a Lady on Fire $505,000 -33% 334 66 $1,512 $3,327,281 14 NEON
4 Baaghi 3 $440,000 265 $1,660 $440,000 1 FIP
5 Dolittle $420,000 -59% 687 -790 $611 $76,895,530 8 Universal
6 The Gentlemen $360,000 -67% 492 -981 $732 $36,004,183 7 STX Entertainment
7 The Photograph $340,000 -68% 382 -1067 $890 $20,354,050 4 Universal Pictures
8 Knives Out $305,000 -51% 401 -269 $761 $165,167,445 15 Lionsgate
9 Las Píldoras De Mi Novio $245,000 -60% 280 -70 $875 $2,793,405 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
10 Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker $230,000 -36% 269 -124 $855 $515,059,813 12 Disney
11 Greed $195,000 707% 596 592 $327 $226,075 2 Sony Pictures Classics
12 Little Women $160,000 -61% 263 -169 $608 $107,967,085 11 Sony Pictures
13 Frozen II $160,000 -49% 229 -115 $699 $477,288,380 16 Disney
14 Spies in Disguise $160,000 -28% 187 -58 $856 $66,670,714 11 20th Century Fox
15 Jojo Rabbit $85,000 -67% 159 -148 $535 $85,000 21 Fox Searchlight

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 First Cow $95,000 4 $23,750 $95,000 1 A24
2 Wendy $60,000 129% 69 65 $870 $89,979 2 Fox Searchlight
3 Ford v. Ferrari $50,000 -47% 95 -58 $526 $117,600,351 17 20th Century Fox
4 Underwater $20,000 -55% 50 -28 $400 $17,279,884 9 20th Century Fox
5 Downhill $18,000 -91% 69 -608 $261 $8,273,306 4 Fox Searchlight

Friday Update: Disney reports this morning that Pixar’s latest original film, Onward, earned $2 million from shows beginning at 6pm on Thursday. That follows the $650K earned from 3pm-only screenings on Leap Day last Saturday in just 470 locations.

Related Coverage: Weekend Box Office Forecast (Updated): Onward and The Way Back

Here’s how Onward‘s Thursday night start (sans Leap Day earnings) stacks up against recent animated titles:

  • 60 percent ahead of The Addams Family ($1.25 million)
  • 13 percent behind The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($2.3 million)
  • 33 percent behind How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World ($3.0 million)
  • 9 percent behind The LEGO Batman Movie ($2.2 million)
  • 18 percent ahead of Zootopia ($1.7 million)

Of note, the three films mentioned above which Onward trailed were sequels/franchise follow-ups, one of which (Pets 2) was a summer release with schools out of session. Overall, this is a great start for the latest Pixar entry.

This weekend’s other opener, The Way Back, did not hold Thursday previews.

More updates throughout the weekend.


Image Sources: Disney, Universal, and Warner Bros.

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