Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man: Far From Home Looks to Sling $45M+ Second Frame; Crawl ($10M+) Chomps Past Stuber ($8M) Among Openers

Saturday Update: Sony and Marvel Studios remain in first place this weekend as Spider-Man: Far From Home added $13.365 million on Friday, its 11th day of release. With $242.6 million in the bank thus far, the conclusion to Phase 3 of the MCU is 14 percent ahead of the domestic start of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($212.7 million through 11 days). Boxoffice projects a strong $46.1 million sophomore weekend.

Toy Story 4 also continues to hold very well, beginning its fourth frame with $6.254 million yesterday. Having taken in $331.96 million domestically after 22 days, the Pixar sequel is 2 percent ahead of Toy Story 3‘s 22-day total ($324.7 million) back in 2010. Boxoffice projects a $21.7 million weekend.

Crawl is winning the battle among openers this weekend with an estimated $4.33 million opening day. That’s comparable to the $4.37 million first day of 47 Meters Down two summers ago. Look for an opening weekend finish north of $10 million. Meanwhile, Stuber is slightly under-performing against pre-release expectations with a $3.08 million first day, putting it on course of a debut weekend around $8 million.

Among holdovers, as expected, the likes of Yesterday, Aladdin, and Secret Life of Pets 2 are pacing for strong holds this weekend. Early weekend estimates are below with studio updates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUL. 12 – SUN, JUL. 14

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Spider-Man: Far from Home $46,100,000 -50% 4,634 0 $9,948 $275,329,305 2 Sony / Columbia
2 Toy Story 4 $21,700,000 -36% 4,210 -330 $5,154 $347,404,574 4 Disney
3 Crawl $10,400,000 3,170 $3,281 $10,400,000 1 Paramount Pictures
4 Stuber $8,000,000 3,050 $2,623 $8,000,000 1 20th Century Fox
5 Yesterday $6,700,000 -33% 2,755 141 $2,432 $48,266,525 3 Universal Pictures
6 Aladdin $5,900,000 -21% 2,557 -201 $2,307 $331,516,720 8 Disney
7 Annabelle Comes Home $5,300,000 -44% 3,209 -404 $1,652 $60,510,434 3 Warner Bros.
8 Midsommar $3,500,000 -45% 2,707 0 $1,293 $18,355,271 2 A24
9 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $3,300,000 -29% 2,320 -526 $1,422 $147,337,185 6 Universal
10 Men in Black: International $2,200,000 -42% 1,612 -1104 $1,365 $76,468,597 5 Sony / Columbia
11 Rocketman $1,700,000 -35% 1,332 -77 $1,276 $91,974,910 7 Paramount Pictures
12 Avengers: Endgame $1,600,000 -49% 1,443 -542 $1,109 $851,108,139 12 Disney
13 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum $1,300,000 -39% 1,145 -348 $1,135 $167,463,716 9 Lionsgate

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Child’s Play $590,000 -60% 807 -900 $731 $28,415,516 4 United Artists Releasing
2 Bethany Hamilton: Unstoppable $240,000 205 $1,171 $240,000 1 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
3 Dark Phoenix $195,000 -56% 200 -226 $975 $65,078,366 6 Fox

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Unplanned $440,000 49 $8,980 $440,000 16 Pure Flix
2 The Other Side of Heaven 2: Fire of Faith $140,000 -21% 97 -82 $1,443 $1,268,210 3 ArtAffects Entertainment
3 Anna $92,000 -52% 92 -232 $1,000 $7,505,591 4 Lionsgate / Summit
4 Dumbo $49,000 -20% 92 -11 $533 $114,638,619 16 Walt Disney Pictures

Friday Report: This weekend’s openers are officially in play as Paramount’s Crawl won the Thursday night showdown with an estimated $1 million start — about 25 percent behind The Shallows‘ $1.33 million start three years ago, but 35 percent ahead of 47 Meters Down ($740K) two summers back. The film’s 88 percent Rotten Tomatoes score could be conducive to a healthy weekend multiple if word of mouth from creature feature fans spreads quickly enough.

Meanwhile, Stuber is off to a comparatively modest start with $750K from last night’s first shows. That’s just over half of Tag‘s $1.325 million Thursday night bow last summer, and less than half of Hitman’s Bodyguard ($1.65 million) and Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates ($1.6 million).

In the mean time, Spider-Man: Far From Home remains on course for a second weekend atop the domestic box office. More updates throughout the weekend.

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