Weekend Forecast: Tenet Hopes for 6th #1 Finish as The War with Grandpa and a Coco Re-Issue Debut

Photo Credits: Hoyte van Hoytema & Warner Bros. ("Tenet"), dir. Christopher Nolan; 101 Studios ("The War with Grandpa"), Disney / Pixar ("Coco")

As expected for the past few weeks, the domestic box office market continues to slow down with little in the way of major new releases hitting theaters this fall. Tenet scored its fifth straight number-one finish last weekend with $2.7 million, and Christopher Nolan’s cerebral sci-fi blockbuster remains the slight favorite to win another frame.

However, two films will strive to change that narrative.

First up is a wholly new release from 101 Studios, The War with Grandpa. Starring Robert de Niro, the comedy is targeting family audiences who have had very little to choose from during the theatrical re-opening’s first phase. As such, it remains to be seen if this once-intended counter-programmer can find a significant base with minimal marketing behind it.

Meanwhile, Disney is continuing its trend of re-releases from their vault with Pixar’s Coco. Timed for the current season, the hit animated title could enjoy the same kind of success as last week’s Hocus Pocus re-issue, which took in $1.925 million in its “first” weekend, or The Empire Strikes Back, which earned a $908K weekend two frames ago.

Also debuting will be Sony and Stage 6’s Yellow Rose in an estimated 900 locations this weekend.

Another factor to consider is that Regal announced it will temporarily close all 536 of its domestic theaters after the end of business on Thursday — although it should be noted that only approximately 35 to 40 percent of those had re-opened.

While it’s possible the (admittedly, minimal) business those venues were drawing could spread out to other chains and independents that remain open, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some minor effect on the weekend-to-weekend holds of titles already in the marketplace.

Confirmed Estimates of Domestic Location Counts (Subject to Updates)

  • The War with Grandpa (2,250)
  • Hocus Pocus (2,113)
  • Coco (1,889)
  • The New Mutants (1,663)
  • Infidel (959)
  • Yellow Rose (900)
  • The Empire Strikes Back (825)
  • Save Yourselves! (346)
  • Kajillionaire (267)
  • Words on Bathroom Walls (173)
  • The Wolf of Snow Hollow (112)
  • Bill & Ted Face the Music (107)
  • The Personal History of David Copperfield (93)
  • A Call to Spy (79)
  • The Secrets We Keep (28)

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 11 % Change from Last Wknd
Tenet Warner Bros. $2,000,000 $48,050,000 -26%
The War with Grandpa 101 Studios $1,100,000 $1,100,000 NEW
Coco (Re-Issue) Disney / Pixar $1,000,000 $1,000,000 NEW
Hocus Pocus (Re-Issue) Disney $820,000 $3,100,000 -57%
The New Mutants Disney / 20th Century Studios $700,000 $22,000,000 -33%
Yellow Rose Sony / Stage 6 $600,000 $600,000 NEW
Unhinged Solstice Studios $590,000 $19,300,000 -30%
Infidel Cloudburst Entertainment $235,000 $3,850,000 -49%
The Broken Hearts Gallery Sony / TriStar Pictures $175,000 $4,000,000 -37%
Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back Disney / 20th Century Studios $150,000 $2,500,000 -55%

All forecasts subject to change before the first confirmation of weekend estimates from studios or alternative sources.

For press inquiries, please contact Shawn Robbins

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