The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | January 16 – 18, 2026
Week 3 | January 16 – 18, 2026
1. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
Sony Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Market Share: 14%
Pros
- Last year’s 28 Years Later had 18 years to build up expectations, ultimately nabbing franchise-best earnings both domestically and globally ($70.4M/$150M) with an eye-catching $30M debut. The shot back-to-back sequel 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple switches out original helmer Danny Boyle for Nia DaCosta, whose work on sequels has been spotty. Her Candyman reboot did well domestically ($61.18M) but withered overseas, while The Marvels was the lowest-performing MCU movie in history ($206.1M global). Ralph Fiennes returns as Dr. Ian Kelson, while Jack O’Connell is making a bid for horror royalty after last year’s Sinners.
Cons
- The first 28 Years had a strong debut ($30M) but fizzled fast over the summer. The follow-up may not be able to pick up any new fans, the film ramps up the world-building and features some of the series’ most violent sequences, resulting in a focus primarily on the franchise’s core supporters. As a result, we’re anticipating a significant drop-off in grosses for 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple.
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash
20th Century Studios | Week 5
Weekend Range: $12M – $17M
Showtime Market Share: 9%
Pros
- 20th Century’s Avatar: Fire and Ash became the first movie since Barbie to stay #1 for four consecutive weekends, earning $21.5M in its fourth frame, bringing its current domestic total to $344.4M. We’re expecting Avatar 3 to give up the crown this weekend, although tracking for 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple has been sliding down this week, which could bode well for James Cameron.
Cons
- If 28 Years Later completely misses the mark, Avatar could potentially hold on to the top spot, but the sheer discrepancy in Showtime Market Share (9%, compared to The Bone Temple‘s 14%) makes this extremely unlikely. In terms of our weekly wellness check on this film, it is currently -34% below The Way of Water 25 days into its run. Grosses are still high overseas, suggesting that any future installments may reflect other globally-focused titles series like Fast & the Furious and Jurassic World.
Battle for Third
Primate
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $5M – $8M
Showtime Market Share: 9%
- Paramount’s simian horror programmer Primate had a stronger-than-expected opening frame ($11.15M), which led to the second-best showtime market share for the weekend (9%). Word-of-mouth can keep it going this weekend, but direct competition from a bigger genre brand in 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple could cannibalize its hold and drop it as far down as fifth on the weekend chart.
Zootopia 2
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 8
Weekend Range: $5M – $8M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
- The legs on Disney’s Zootopia 2 have been great at $379.26M domestic, including a staggering $601M China performance that has nearly doubled North America. No other family title has this many showtimes in the domestic market (in the Top 5 at 8%), but by this point, other titles have more buzz and word-of-mouth to help carry them into higher spots.
The Housemaid
Lionsgate | Week 5
Weekend Range: $5M – $8M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
- Drops on The Housemaid have been fantastically low, with Frame 4 coming in at only -28%. We expect this title, currently at $94.86M domestic, to hit the $100M mark this weekend. We would not be surprised by a third-place finish, given the way it’s performing.
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