The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | September 12 – 14, 2025
Week 37 | September 12 – 14, 2025
1. Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle
Sony | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $60M – $75M
Showtime Marketshare: 19%
Pros
- Between KPop Demon Hunters and The Conjuring, demonic elimination is officially in this season. Add to that Sony’s U.S. bow of anime Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle (“Kimetsu no Yaiba”), which has already rocked its native Japan with $212.28M, becoming the fastest movie to 30 billion yen and the third biggest Japanese film behind Demon Slayer: Mugen Train and Spirited Away. Earning the title of “biggest anime debut of all-time” in North America is on deck for the English dub of Demon Slayer, and it should pick up the highest-grossing domestic anime title by its second weekend. The biggest stateside anime is still 1999’s Pokémon: The First Movie – Mewtwo Strikes Back, which made $85.7M unadjusted. World-conquering this frame will also include expanding overseas in 49 markets, including the UK, Australia, Spain, Italy, Latin America and the Middle East, all of which will galvanize the conversation.
Cons
- However, we expect steep drops on Infinity Castle in the ensuing weeks. The frontloaded run will be accounted for when it comes to this entry, especially considering that this is a fan-driven enterprise with negligible GA appeal. Case in point, the last two films in the series underperformed here. Mugen Train made big money in 2021, opening to $21.1M for a $50.27M total, but last year’s To the Hashira Training only bowed to $11.5M before stalling out at $17.65M. The 2023 prior entry To the Swordsmith Village did similar business here. Anticipation for this one is built by the huge international rollout in Asia ($45M for non-Japanese territories so far), along with being billed as the first in a climactic three-part story arc.
2. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Warner Bros./New Line | Week 2
Weekend Range: $35M – $45M
Showtime Marketshare: 14%
Pros
- Like a demonic entity in one of these movies, The Conjuring: Last Rites snuck up and shocked the industry with the third biggest domestic horror opening ($84M) and #1 global horror opening ($194M WW) of all-time. Even if the grosses go south in the -50%+ arena, Frame 2 for this title is still looking like about what was originally expected from it in Frame 1 before it massively over-indexed. Even though this and Sony’s Demon Slayers are technically in the same demonic territory and both rated R, one is a kitchen sink horror movie and the other is an action-packed fantasy, so crossover should be minimal.
Cons
- What’s the negative side to a movie that was already well into profit in three days, and singlehandedly brought us back to a $100M overall box office weekend? Not much, although the studio is in something of a quandary over the title itself, “Last Rites,” since it promised that this was the big final act in the Conjuring Universe. Can the studio backpedal on that finality without leaving the audience feeling cheated? There is some talk that all of these last 10 Conjuring films are simply “Phase 1,” and that a revamped Phase 2 is being cooked up.
3. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Focus Features | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $20M – $25M
Showtime Marketshare: 12%
Pros
- Universal’s boutique arm Focus Features is having a grand opening on 3500 screens for Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, the third and “final” film based around the six-season smash ITV series which also found success on PBS in America. The “upstairs/downstairs” drama of wealthy elites and their servants is looking decently strong to come out in third place this frame, as Stephen King dystopia The Long Walk is expected to post a more modest $10M-$15M opening weekend. The current popularity of Downton creator Julian Fellowes’ similarly-themed HBO series The Gilded Age could also drive business to this third film. Reviews are currently at an excellent 90% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Cons
- Downton Abbey should have the age 45+ market all sewn up this weekend, but that older market is historically less reliable for theatrical attendance than the much sought-after under 35’s. Even a more old fashioned blockbuster hit like F1 was still driven by younger adults. There’s also the issue of the second film, 2022’s Downton Abbey: A New Era, grossing less than half the first on all fronts, meaning opening ($16M vs $31M), domestic total ($44.1M vs $96.85M), and global gross ($92.7M vs $194.69M). A New Era debuted towards the beginning of summer ’22, while The Grand Finale is landing on a mid-September date similar to the first. Hopefully the second one can be chalked up to being a summer “away game,” and this fall date is more of a “home field advantage.”
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