The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 1 – 3, 2026
Week 18 | May 1 – 3, 2026
1. The Devil Wears Prada 2
20th Century Studios | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $95M – $105M
Showtime Market Share: 28%
Pros
- 20th Century’s The Devil Wears Prada 2 is tracking for a $100M opening weekend thanks to the alchemy of all returning principals, including the screenwriter, director, and original four leads. We suspect our panel could even be lowballing this outlook, since pre-sales have been massive. If the movie connects with audiences, it could finish the year as one of the highest-grossing titles domestically. Expect major upside on this one, potentially blowing well past our forecast, as Michael did last week. If this plays anything like the first, overseas numbers could be even bigger than domestic.
Cons
- The most recent nostalgia-driven comedy sequel to open even close to what we’re expecting was last year’s Freakier Friday, which bowed to $28.58M at #2. It wound up earning $94.18M domestic, but the opening numbers on Prada 2 look to surpass that lifetime and then some. Early reactions are generally positive as well, so the only downside could be an overestimation of goodwill toward the first movie, which opened to $27.5M and earned $124.7M domestically two decades ago.
2. Michael
Lionsgate | Week 2
Weekend Range: $50M – $60M
Showtime Market Share: 19%
Pros
- We never expected Michael to be as big as it was, earning $97.2M and becoming the biggest biopic opening ever, never mind a music biopic. The “A-” CinemaScore was a determining factor in securing enough walk-up business to blow past expectations last weekend, and should galvanize curious audiences to go to their local theater during this sophomore frame.
Cons
- Lionsgate and the filmmakers did a remarkable job of emphasizing Michael Jackson’s early career in the film and its marketing, harkening back to the peak of the musician’s popularity and positive public perception. This second frame will be the biggest indicator of how far Michael can go and if it has the legs to moonwalk past the $903.65M Bohemian Rhapsody earned in 2018.
3. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Universal/Illumination | Week 5
Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Showtime Market Share: 11%
Pros
- In Frame 4 The Super Mario Galaxy Movie suffered its lowest drop yet with -44% and $20.58M banked. We expect another decent hold, given there is still no direct family competition, with only low single-digit numbers from Angel Studios’ Animal Farm. It may very well shoot past the domestic total of Zootopia 2 ($428.1M), but it won’t touch that Disney movie’s international haul of close to $2B.
Cons
- The domestic on this animated title is now at $386.9M, likely to crawl past the $400M landmark by Sunday. Compared to Day 27 of release, Mario Galaxy is now more than $100M behind the first movie at this point in its run ($493M). Once you’re dealing with $400M and beyond. This is splitting hairs, but it does beg the question of how diminishing the returns will be on future films, as well as whether or not—at a current $832.76M WW—it has the momentum to pass $1B?
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