The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | October 10 – 12, 2025
Week 41 | October 10 – 12, 2025
1. Tron: Ares
Walt Disney Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $40M – $48M
Showtime Marketshare: 26%
Pros
- Disney has revved up the light cycles for Tron: Ares, the third in the long-running high-tech franchise, where the denizens of the computer realm finally break out into our world. The big budget star vehicle for Jared Leto, who also produces, brings the powerhouse actor back to the dystopian sci-fi realm he last inhabited for Blade Runner 2049. While the original TRON was a box office disappointment ($26.9M) during the legendarily crowded summer of 1982, the movie’s revolutionary showcase of CGI effects (combined with some traditional VFX/animation) and story threads that influenced films like The Matrix made it a popular cult movie. Nearly three decades later, stars Jeff Bridges and Bruce Boxleitner returned for the direct follow-up Tron: Legacy (2010), which did a respectable $172M domestic. The visuals and soundtrack by Daft Punk have kept that sequel alive in the minds of fans, as have animated show Tron: Uprising and a Tron rollercoaster at the Disney parks. A new Ares soundtrack by Nine Inch Nails is already being compared favorably.
Cons
- Back in 2010 Disney bet big on Tron: Legacy, hoping the 80’s revival could build out into a sustainable Star Wars-like franchise. When the studio actually acquired Star Wars, a sequel got put on the back-burner until it was revived in 2017 as a vehicle for recent Oscar-winner Jared Leto. Tron: Ares has gone the soft reboot route, with only Bridges returning for a small role while the middle-aged main cast boasts little appeal for under 25’s. Reviews are at a Rotten Tomatoes critical rating of 52%, and while some have faintly praised it, the fact is that even if it opens at the high end of our panel’s prediction, it will still only be on par with Legacy‘s $44M opening 15 years ago.
2. Roofman
Paramount Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Showtime Marketshare: 9%
Pros
- Channing Tatum stars as a criminal veteran who evades police by hiding in a Toys R Us in Paramount and Miramax’s Roofman, which earned decent reviews out of TIFF and currently sits at a solid 84% critical score on RT. Having a grounded comedy based on real-life events is perfect counter-programming to the spectacle that is Tron, while co-star Kirsten Dunst has a Millennial female appeal. This could be a word-of-mouth builder in terms of walkups to the 3,340 screens playing it.
Cons
While romantic comedy star vehicle The Lost City did over $100M domestic three years ago, Chan-Chan’s last three theatricals all stalled out…
- Magic Mike’s Last Dance (2023) – $26M
- Fly Me to the Moon (2024) – $20.5M
- Blink Twice (2024) – $23M
Even if our prediction panel’s high-end estimate of $10M holds out, it’s likely that Roofman will ultimately bottom out around where the third Magic Mike did.
3. One Battle After Another
Warner Bros. | Week 3
Weekend Range: $5M – $6M
Showtime Marketshare: 7%
Pros
- WB’s Oscar hopeful One Battle After Another continues to acquit itself well at the BO, falling -50% with $11M to take the #2 spot, clobbering Dwayne Johnson’s The Smashing Machine which was expected to hold that slot on the charts. With $45.56M banked domestically and over $100M globally, the film could very well inch past the $200M WW mark depending on how much heat it can generate throughout awards season.
Cons
- The worst case for the movie at this point would be a similar take as Leonardo DiCaprio’s 2023 Martin Scorsese awards contender Killers of the Flower Moon ($88.39M domestic, $156.4M global). The film should be headed towards $60M domestic by the time it closes out its third frame, while overseas the movie is doing double business with $22.1M this last weekend.
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