The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 22 – 24, 2026
Week 21 | May 22 – 24, 2026
1. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
Lucasfilm | NEW
3-Day Weekend Range: $85M – $95M
4-Day Weekend Range: $100M – $115M
Showtime Market Share: 31%
Pros
- Disney’s Lucasfilm delivers the first theatrical Star Wars adventure since The Rise of Skywalker salted the earth in December 2019 with 51% RT critical, the fan base exhausted after five consecutive years of franchise features. Based on the popular Disney+ series that debuted the same year, Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is directed by that show’s mastermind Jon Favreau, whose last two Disney films The Lion King and The Jungle Book grossed a combined $2.6B WW.
- While the show is popular, Disney has cranked out an overall 85 episodes of live-action Star Wars since Mando debuted, which could signal an over-saturation of its own. The decision to bring the show and its adorably tiny Grogu character to the big screen could turn out to be a master stroke, helping to build a new generation of fans for a galaxy far far away. Reviews are middling right now with 60% on Rotten Tomatoes, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (42% RT) proved earlier this year that critical scores are negligible when it comes to films aimed at the 12-and-unders.
Cons
- Mandalorian should slightly improve on the last Disney spin-off we saw hit theaters, Solo: A Star Wars Story ($84.4M 3-Day, $103M 4-Day), released during this same Memorial Day frame in 2018. This week’s pre-sales, however, indicate the film could likely finish the three-day frame on the bottom half of our forecast—with enough margin for error to debut under the Han Solo spin-off. Here is how Solo performed over its 4-Day holiday bow…
- Friday – $35.37M
- Saturday – $24.6M
- Sunday – $24.4M
- Monday – $18.59M
As you can see, Solo started off weak at $35M, including Thursday previews, especially poor compared to Rogue One‘s $71M Friday a year and a half earlier. Solo had disadvantages Mandalorian does not, including toxic press surrounding a mid-production director swap, a bloated $300M+ budget, and coming only five months after The Last Jedi. This latest entry had a fairly quiet production, has a reasonable reported $165M budget, and is the first theatrical Star Wars in nearly seven years. It should cross the $100M benchmark over the 4-Day holiday weekend and be the clear #1 movie despite its relative lack of buzz.
2. Michael
Lionsgate | Week 5
3-Day Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
4-Day Weekend Range: $20M – $25M
Showtime Market Share: 10%
Pros
- Lionsgate’s musical biopic Michael has overperformed every single weekend it’s been in theaters, jumping back to #1 this past frame with $26.1M while only dropping by 31%. This holiday weekend, it looks like the perfect cross-quadrant title for audiences not particularly excited for the Star Wars spin-off. We expect another solid hold, far below -50%.
Cons
- Michael was able to dance back to the top thanks to a dead zone in the release schedule which saw IMAX and PLFs giving the film more real estate with 1,100 locations. Of course, Mandalorian is going to be hogging those screens, especially with an estimated 49 minutes of the Star Wars film shot in full-frame IMAX ratio. This could lead to a steeper drop for the Michael Jackson biopic than it has seen the last three frames.
Toss Up for Third
3. The Devil Wears Prada 2
20th Century Studios | Week 4
3-Day Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
4-Day Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
3. Obsession
Focus Features | Week 2
3-Day Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
4-Day Weekend Range: $10M – $12M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
Pros
- Both Obsession and The Devil Wars Prada 2 came in way closer than anyone expected last weekend, with Prada 2 ultimately bringing in $17.8M and Obsession at $17.19M (more than a million over Sunday estimates). We expect another close battle over the holiday weekend. That post-Mother’s Day Prada 2 drop landed the title on the lowest end of our forecast in Frame 3. The Memorial Day holiday should give it a boost, but it’ll be coming up against the red-hot word-of-mouth hit that is Obsession (“A-” CinemaScore, 94% Rotten Tomatoes critical, 94% audience score). After an Iron Lung-esque over-performance in its debut, Obsession is very much the film of the moment, and positive reactions could lift the title to a stellar 4-Day gross.
Cons
- There is an outside chance that an over-performance from either Neon’s I Love Boosters (94% RT) or Paramount’s Passenger could land them in third, though we expect both titles to finish the weekend rounding out the Top 5 with a 4-day range between $7M – $10M. Showtimes are going to be hard to come by, with these two titles coming up against a lot of traffic from competing tentpoles. In the case of Passenger, it is in the unenviable position of being a horror title sans big names or IP sandwiched between Obsession last week and then Backrooms on May 29 followed by the studio’s own Scary Movie on June 5.
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