The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 8 – 10, 2026
Week 19 | May 8 – 10, 2026
1. Mortal Kombat II
Warner Bros. | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $40M – $45M
Showtime Market Share: 18%
Pros
- After Warner Bros. gave 2021’s Mortal Kombat a day-and-date theatrical/streaming release ($42.3M domestic/$84.4M WW), they are smartly approaching Mortal Kombat II as a soft reboot, ceding the lead from Lewis Tan’s Cole Young to Karl Urban’s Johnny Cage. Even though the director and most of the supporting cast are returning, this shift in focus will give audiences a chance to rediscover the franchise in theaters, where bloody R-rated fights can get the cheers they deserve. Early reactions seem to indicate that this strategy has paid off, with some calling it more faithful to the Midway games.
Cons
- Mortal Kombat II will have to ward off a hot streak from Michael and Prada 2 to top the weekend, a race that is looking tighter than you would expect. PLF screens should give it the edge over Prada, which only claimed 29% of its opening weekend from premiums that will now shift over to the action title. We expect the Top 3 to combine for 100M+ this weekend, continuing the hot hand in the run-up to Memorial Day. The early summer release also gives WB the uppercut against Paramount’s Street Fighter movie, which doesn’t bow until the fall.
2. The Devil Wears Prada 2
20th Century Studios | Week 2
Weekend Range: $38M – $43M
Showtime Market Share: 17%
Pros
- The 20th Century’s The Devil Wears Prada 2 opened strong with a $76.7M bow (only slightly below $77M Sunday estimates), breathing new life into the female-driven theatrical rom-com sphere. That’s better than Marvel’s Thunderbolts* ($74.3M opening) in the same frame last year, which is amazing in and of itself. We expect this star-driven title to play well throughout the month and perhaps into June.
Cons
- Our forecasting panel sees Prada 2 taking a less-than-50% dive in Frame 2 owing to solid metrics including 77% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, 87% audience score, “A-” CinemaScore, and GA 4.5 out of 5 stars on PostTrak. It also benefits this specific audience is not being served again with a mainstream romantic offering until Universal’s One Night Only in August.
3. Michael
Lionsgate | Week 3
Weekend Range: $25M – $30M
Showtime Market Share: 14%
Pros
- We said that the second frame would tell the tale for Lionsgate’s Michael, and the biopic performed beautifully with a -44% drop for $54.4M and a current $188.78M domestic take. This puts the movie past Lionsgate’s 2023 hit John Wick: Chapter 4 at $187.1M to become their highest-grossing film of the 2020’s. We should see the celebration of Michael Jackson’s early-career peak cross the $200M mark before the weekend.
Cons
- Michael is also performing well internationally with a $434.86M global gross. While that is nearly halfway towards Bohemian Rhapsody‘s $903.6M, it may not have enough momentum to take down the Freddie Mercury biopic worldwide, even though it will certainly beat it domestically ($216.4M). When that is the worst you can say about a movie’s financials, you know it is in pretty good shape.
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