The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | April 3 – 5, 2026
Week 14 | April 3 – 5, 2026
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Universal/Illumination | New
Opening Weekend Range: $130M – $145M
Pros
- Our first guaranteed $100M+ opening of the year has arrived as Universal and Illumination take audiences back to the Mushroom Kingdom with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. Taking its name from Nintendo’s popular 2007 platformer, the sequel features the return of Chris Pratt & Co. voicing the various high-jumping heroes who drove the 2023 animated smash to a $146.36M 3-Day. Bonus points for the video game company stretching the 40th anniversary of Mario celebrations into this year. We’re expecting this one to hit $400M+ domestic in its theatrical run and finish the year as one of the top titles. While muted early reactions out of yesterday’s press screenings are calling it a mixed bag, if ever there was a critic-proof movie it is this one.
Cons
- If there is any problem here it is growth. After a strong start in pre-sales with similarities to last year’s A Minecraft Movie ($162.75M opening), Super Mario Galaxy is instead reaching its opening weekend at a similar pace to its predecessor. When you have a sequel like this a studio is chasing infinite franchise potential, so while Mario isn’t free falling like the animated LEGO franchise, current signs show a plateau forming that may be detrimental to the long-term. A $200M 5-Day performance is still possible, but that would be the ceiling. In any case, this is a fantastic performance that exhibitors will welcome.
2. Project Hail Mary
Amazon/MGM | Week 3
Weekend Range: $28M – $35M
Pros
- Amazon/MGM’s Project Hail Mary continues to shoot through the stratosphere with a $54M second weekend which showed only a -33% drop. That terrific hold in Frame 2 is a great sign going into Frame 3, where we expect another strong showing as Mario will provide only limited competition. Our forecasting panel sees another less-than-50% drop on the horizon.
Cons
- Spring break across the country means theaters choked with under-12s who are not the audience for the more grown up-leaning adventure of Project Hail Mary. Now that the Ryan Gosling movie is shifting to counter-programming position, it could see steeper drops. Considering MGM is still riding the same franchises it has relied on for half-a-century (Bond and Rocky), a sequel to this could be in the offing but would lack the freshness that made this one so appealing.
3. The Drama
A24 | New
Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $15M
Pros
- In A24’s latest up-market offering The Drama, superstars Zendaya and Robert Pattinson play an engaged couple on the eve of their wedding who start to have doubts based on unsettling truths revealed. Directed by Norwegian helmer Kristoffer Borgli who brought us the quirky Dream Scenario ($5.7M domestic), this new film promises another straddling of comedic and disturbing tones. Rotten Tomatoes critical is currently at a solid 83%, which bodes well for word of mouth.
Cons
- Star power alone should be enough to push The Drama into the low teens, but a genre blend between romantic comedy and thriller will have an uphill battle finding a niche for itself in the marketplace. Female audiences arriving in theaters expecting sexy rom com fun may be in for a cold shower, leading to an A24-typical CinemaScore backlash.
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