The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | April 10 – 12, 2026
Week 15 | April 10 – 12, 2026
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Universal/Illumination | Week 2
Weekend Range: $65 – $72M
Pros
- Universal and Illumination’s animated sequel The Super Mario Galaxy Movie took the box office to the next level this past weekend, posting a $131.7M debut (almost a million more than Sunday estimates), and thanks to Easter Monday crossed the $200M barrier ($207.6M). Even though it is performing under the first, this is still far-and-away the best opener of 2026 and also one of the biggest animated openings ever (#7 domestically, #5 WW). The film itself should be well into profit by the end of this coming weekend, and extends the runway for more Nintendo films to come including Sony’s Zelda flick next summer. Despite critical animus, the 89% audience rating and “A-” CinemaScore say this film is mission accomplished for the core audience.
Cons
- In its sophomore 2023 frame, The Super Mario Bros. Movie notched $92.3M for a -36.9% drop. The new sequel is already trailing behind the first movie, and could see a -50% drop in Frame 2. As stated on Sunday, it has generally been the law of diminishing returns when it comes to Illumination sequels, but that does not mean they are not insanely profitable for corporate, especially with other revenue streams taken into account. That said, Galaxy‘s failure to show growth could mean the company might slow their roll when it comes to a Starfox or Yoshi spin-off and the like.
2. Project Hail Mary
Amazon/MGM | Week 4
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Pros
- With $31.7M earned this weekend (a million over estimates), Amazon/MGM’s sci-fi smash Project Hail Mary continues to hold well, posting a -41% drop. With no formidable competition this weekend, it will continue to hold the line at #2 as the perfect general audience median between the kiddie-focused Mario and the more date-oriented You, Me & Tuscany. IFC’s Faces of Death also poses no threat.
Cons
- Earning $430M globally with no IP could also mean all studios beginning to take more calculated risks on fresh material, but there is always the risk that Hollywood will take the wrong message by saying “We need more space movies!” or “It was all Gosling!” Last year Sinners was in the Top 10, and in 2026 we’ve had this movie plus Hoppers and GOAT cross $100M. The takeaway should lean towards more original movies, but we will see if that happens.
3. You, Me & Tuscany
Universal Pictures | New
Opening Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Pros
- Hot rising stars Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page lead this bubbly rom-com about a young female American chef whose plan to spend a vacay in an empty Italian villa leads to predictably awkward complications. Page plays the unexpected love interest in the middle of her duplicity, and both actors appear to have chemistry aplenty along with the built-in fanbases they are pulling to multiplexes from The Little Mermaid and Bridgerton.
Cons
- The recent romantic drama Reminders of Him should cross $50M domestic before it is through, while dark rom-com The Drama made a splash ($14.38M debut) thanks to a somewhat misleading A24 ad campaign and star power. The difference between those and You, Me & Tuscany is they seemed to be offering something the female audience cannot get in a typical Netflix or Hallmark streaming romance. Universal putting a more standard light rom-com into theaters this weekend is a clear play for that streaming audience to have a theatrical date destination away from the sofa, and it will be interesting to see if the gambit pays off.
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