The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | July 11 – 13, 2025
Week 28 | July 11 – 13, 2025
1. Superman
Warner Bros. | NEW
Weekend Range: $115M – $135M
Showtime Marketshare: 35%
Pros
- DC Studios’ inaugural effort, Superman, has been tracking wildly down the home stretch, with some forecasters in our panel contributing opening figures as low as $90M and as high as $150M. Awareness is sky-high from Warner Bros.’ marketing blitz, so we expect a debut weekend at $115M+, using Man of Steel’s $116M bow as a baseline. Reviewers are paying the kindness of Superman forward with terrific reviews (current 87% on Rotten Tomatoes), and word of mouth will likely influence where this film lands on opening weekend. The studio already has a follow-up lined up with spin-off Supergirl, scheduled to open next June. Superman has already locked up over a third of all showtimes in the United States heading into the weekend.
Cons
- Warner Bros. has had a hard time reviving the magic from Richard Donner’s classic 1978 Superman. Two different iterations of the superhero have graced cinema screens since Christopher Reeve left the role, neither of them producing a Superman-specific sequel. Here are the box office results of recent Superman movies…
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) – $166M opening/$330.36M domestic
- Man of Steel (2013) – $116.6M opening/$291M domestic
- Justice League (2017) – $93.8M opening/$229M domestic
- Superman Returns (2006) – $52.5M opening/$200.1M domestic
James Gunn’s upbeat new Superman is coming in with the advantage in both audience and critical appeal, but still has to bear the weight (and comparison) of these previous four entries’ baggage. Overcoming that will be the biggest hurdle for Gunn as well as the Warners’ marketing department.
2. Jurassic World Rebirth
Universal Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $35M – $45M
Showtime Marketshare: 21%
Pros
- Jurassic World Rebirth took in $92M over the July 4 3-Day frame (a notch above the $91.5M Sunday estimates), with the domestic total now at $159.5M. Our forecast of $35M – $45M in Frame 2 should easily help the film stride past $200M domestic before Sunday. Depending on how big Superman opens, Jurassic is also guaranteed to be the standby choice for audiences when superhero tickets sell out. Having two major IP tentpoles in the same theatrical space is fantastic for exhibitors.
Cons
- Although Jurassic World Rebirth clocked the biggest global debut of 2025, Superman looks to be more than a match for these dinos. Our panel is forecasting a -50%+ tumble for Jurassic, based not only on the strength of the DC hero’s splashy new film but also the critical drubbing (52% rotten on RT) combined with that “B” CinemaScore. This soft reboot was already on a course for a lower theatrical total than the three previous Jurassic World movies (which earned between $415M and $652M in North America alone), but the modest audience response combined with Superman commandeering all its PLFs could put the ceiling for Rebirth at less than $300M domestic.
3. F1: The Movie
Warner Bros./Apple | Week 3
Weekend Range: $12M – $14M
Showtime Marketshare: 9%
Pros
- As Brad and his Pitt crew prepare for another lap around the track, F1 continues to perform with a $25.78M second frame, slightly below $26.1M Sunday estimates. The Formula One sports racing film has now racked up $112.7M domestic and $301.2M globally, both excellent milestones. This one is still the blockbuster of choice for older audiences looking for an original option at the multiplex (i.e. the same crowd who made Sinners a hit).
Cons
- Competition for PLF screens from competing tentpoles should dent the movie’s performance in the coming weeks, resulting in steeper percentage drops as we get deeper into the summer.
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