Saturday Report: United Artists Releasing and studio representatives this morning reported that No Time to Die bowed to $23.3 million in its domestic opening day, including all preview grosses from Wednesday and Thursday ($6.231 million).
That figure marks the 6th largest opening day in the history of October releases, coming in just ahead of 2010’s Jackass 3D ($22.04 million) and behind Paranormal Activity 3 ($26.3 million in 2011). Additionally, it is the fifth largest opening day of the pandemic era — landing ahead of A Quiet Place Part II ($19.37 million) and behind F9 ($29.86 million).
Within the Bond franchise, it marks the third highest opening day behind Spectre ($27.4 million) in 2015 and Skyfall ($30.5 million) in 2012.
In favor of Daniel Craig’s James Bond swan song is what’s expected to be a better weekend multiple than most of the other larger pandemic openers to date, partly thanks to the fall schedule and older target audience.
For the weekend, Boxoffice PRO is projecting a finish between $55 million and $60 million at this time, with some possible upside to go slightly north of the latter figure. It’s a range that noticeably falls short of our final weekend forecast, but also within the boundaries of what was once the expected range just a few weeks back.
As the first true adult-targeted tentpole release of the pandemic era, modeling has been volatile for No Time to Die — among other films. Pre-sales were notably more front-loaded than expected for the franchise, proving to taper off significantly during the final 72 hours before release than trends, including very strong social media and awareness footprints, had suggested during the weeks prior.
The film’s now-projected performance remains a very healthy indicator for the box office recovery era, but also serves as a reminder that some of the target audience over the age of 35 (especially women) remain slowest and cautious to return to cinemas in North America relative to the younger demographics that have driven other surprise performances throughout the year.
Positive staying power could yet be in Bond’s future either this weekend or the frames ahead, but that remains to be seen. The film currently boasts an 89 percent audience score and 84 percent critics’ mark on Rotten Tomatoes, while the studio reports an “A-” CinemaScore from audiences.
Our further weekend analysis on No Time to Die, the domestic market, and international updates will follow on Sunday.