Long Range Forecast — April 24, 2026
Michael | Lionsgate
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $80M – $90M
Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic was the highlight of the studio’s CinemaCon presentation in 2024 but went unmentioned in 2025, drawing our concern for its omission. Though multiple reschedulings and reshoots have us conservative for now, Jackson’s enduring fame—and the many controversies he faced throughout his life–give this long-awaited biopic the potential to become a box office breakout. The interest is surely there—viewership of the first teaser in its first 24 hours was the largest both of any trailer in Lionsgate history and of any musical biopic—but early reviews will give us a better idea of whether the merely curious can be induced to buy tickets. Michael could easily follow the footsteps of Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis, a biopic of the only other musical star who shares a level of global fame on a par with Jackson’s; the June 2022 Elvis Presley biopic opened soft at $31.2M and enjoyed mostly modest week-on-week drops through the summer to top out at $151M.
A major component to Michael‘s box office success will be its recreation of iconic performances from the star, from his early Jackson 5 days all the way through to sold-out arenas. Expansive concert scenes were a substantial draw for Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, which opened to $51M in October 2018 and went on to become one of the 15 highest-grossing films of that year despite a middling critical reception. With the domestic footprint of premium cinema experiences—like immersive seating, large-format screens, immersive sound, or panoramic ScreenX auditoriums—substantially larger than they were in 2018, premium tickets can be expected to make up a good portion of the film’s debut weekend.
All that said, biopics of musical stars tend to be hit-or-miss, with even films based on iconic stars–like Whitney Houston biopic I Wanna Dance With Somebody ($4.7M debut, $23.7M total); Respect ($8.8M debut, $24.2M total), about Aretha Franklin; or the Amy Winehouse-focused Back to Black ($2.8M debut, $6.1M total)—failing to connect with mass audiences. In between these films and $100M-plus earners like Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis are a slew of other comps from the last ten years, including Bob Marley: One Love ($28.6M debut, $96.9M total), Rocketman ($25.7M debut, $96.3M total), A Complete Unknown ($11.6M debut, $75M total), and—on the lower side—Michael‘s fellow Lionsgate release All Eyez On Me ($26.4M debut, $44.9M total), about Tupac Shakur.
Tracking Updates [As Of 3/27/26]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 3/27 | They Will Kill You | $5M – $7M | Warner Bros. |
| 4/1 | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | $150M – $165M (3-Day) – $185M – $200M (5-Day) | Universal |
| 4/3 | The Drama | $13M – $18M | A24 |
| 4/10 | You, Me & Tuscany | $12M – $18M | Universal |
| 4/17 | Lee Cronin’s The Mummy | $10M – $20M | Warner Bros. |
| 4/24 | Michael | $80M – $90M | Lionsgate |
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