The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | April 24 – 26, 2026
Week 17 | April 24 – 26, 2026
1. Michael
Lionsgate | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $65M – $75M
Pros
- Directed by Antoine Fuqua, Lionsgate’s big-budget biopic Michael follows the late singer from his childhood with The Jackson 5 through his early solo success. One aspect driving these big numbers is that approximately 3,900 of the screens it is opening are IMAX and Premium Large Format screens. Those higher PLF tickets will be the priority for the eventized film. Several members from our forecasting panel see big upside on this title, which could potentially overperform to the $80M range. We are expecting Michael to dethrone Straight Outta Compton‘s $60M debut to become the highest opening weekend of all-time for a music biopic.
Cons
- While we’ve received word of a potential overperformance, we’ve also heard of weak pre-sales in several key markets. Despite the large PLF concentration, we’re not expecting this to be an opening-weekend play, with a crossover audience likely waiting for word of mouth to influence their moviegoing decision in chase weeks. Even if it comes in under our range, it will likely still beat the #2 music biopic opening weekend Bohemian Rhapsody ($51M), also produced by Graham King.
2. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Universal/Illumination | Week 4
Weekend Range: $13 – $18M
Pros
- Universal’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie took another drop close to -50% this weekend with $36.49M ($1.5M above Sunday estimates). We are looking at another halving this frame as Michael plays the hits and dominates the charts, but at $358.76M domestic and $758.59M WW this movie looks poised to pass the coveted $1B thresshold before its run is through.
Cons
- Right now this movie is about $200M shy of blowing past A Minecraft Movie‘s stake as the #2 video game movie of all-time globally, and it could get there if these percentage drops could slow down a bit. This Mario is simply not what the first one was, and that’s okay. It could spell trouble for May’s The Mandalorian and Grogu, another kiddie-centric four-quadrant blockbuster that may well underperform compared to its predecessors.
3. Project Hail Mary
Amazon/MGM | Week 5
Weekend Range: $9M – $12M
Pros
- Another week, another stunning hold for Amazon/MGM’s blockbuster Project Hail Mary as the movie brought in $20.5M in Frame 4, not only an excellent -15% drop but also a better performance than 2026 #1 openers like Mercy or Send Help. This movie is doing gangbusters and only $14M shy of crossing $300M domestic, which it should pull off by or before Sunday.
Cons
- Project Hail Mary has not had a drop in the -50% arena yet, but this might be the weekend as it sheds PLFs to make way for Michael. As stated last week, the movie is so unique that there appears to be no comparable forthcoming competition, which means it could stay in the Top 10 well into May. Global trajectory is still in the $700M region, which is fabulous.
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