Long Range: Avengers: Endgame Tracking for Titanic $265M Domestic Record Opening

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After eleven years of serialized cinematic storytelling on an unprecedented level, April 26 will see the culmination of 21 previous films as the Marvel Cinematic Universe delivers what is promised to be its biggest transitional chapter to date.

Avengers: Endgame
Opening Weekend Tracking Range: $250 – 290 million

PROS:

  • Audiences around the world have embraced the MCU’s library of characters over the past decade, setting up an emotional connection that has turned nearly every installment of the franchise in recent years into event-level cinema.
  • In a soon-to-be-published interview with Boxoffice, Joe Russo — one of the film’s two directors — stated that test audiences have given Endgame “some of the most incredible responses in Marvel history.”
  • Infinity War‘s lead-in one year ago offered one of the most talked-about cliffhangers in cinema history. That film generated a massive $678.8 million domestic haul from a record $257.7 million opening weekend. The curiosity surrounding its resolution and the fate of many beloved characters will result in high awareness, intent to see, and desire to not have Endgame spoiled.
  • On the social media front, Boxoffice is tracking a consistently higher level of Twitter and Facebook activity for Endgame than its predecessor’s strong results last year.
  • This week’s Trailer Impact survey delivered a massive 94 percent Average Positive Interest score, the highest score tracked on the service since its inception. That metric hasn’t dipped below 93 percent since Endgame first appeared on the survey in December.
  • With audience interest in premium experiences higher than ever, plus a film shot entirely in IMAX format (like Infinity War), earnings for this film’s run — especially on opening weekend with intense fan demand — will be boosted by sales for IMAX, Dolby Cinema, and other PLF screens.

CONS:

  • This is the closest thing to a safe box office bet since the previous Avengers film, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. If there’s one caveat to forecasts at this stage, it’s the unpredictable X factor of whether or not mainstream moviegoers side with test audiences — and, eventually, critics — and how kid-friendly the movie will be if any characters actually do meet a permanent demise. Even then, a massive opening is all but assured — regardless of whether or not it sets another record. .

8-Week Tracking

Release DateTitle3-Day Wide Release Tracking% Chg from Last WeekDomestic Total Forecast% Chg from Last WeekEstimated Location CountDistributor
3/8/2019Captain Marvel$160,000,000$450,000,0004,100Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019Five Feet Apart$13,000,00013%$39,000,0005%2,600Lionsgate
3/15/2019Wonder Park$9,000,00013%$34,000,00013%3,400Paramount
3/22/2019Us$44,000,0005%$135,000,000Universal
3/29/2019Dumbo (2019)$55,000,000$164,000,000Disney
3/29/2019Hotel Mumbain/an/aBleecker Street
3/29/2019Unplannedn/an/aPure Flix
4/5/2019The Best of Enemies$10,000,000$30,000,000STX
4/5/2019Pet Sematary (2019)$28,000,000$65,000,000Paramount
4/5/2019Shazam!$48,000,000$144,000,000Warner Bros.
4/12/2019After (2019)n/an/aAviron
4/12/2019Hellboy (2019)$22,000,000$46,000,000Lionsgate / Summit
4/12/2019Little$15,000,000$43,000,000Universal
4/12/2019Missing Link$10,000,000$39,000,000Annapurna Pictures
4/17/2019Breakthrough$15,000,000$56,000,000Fox
4/17/2019Penguins$4,500,000$17,500,000Disney / Disneynature
4/19/2019The Curse of La Llorona$20,000,000$45,000,000Warner Bros. (New Line)
4/26/2019Avengers: Endgame$265,000,000NEW$695,000,000NEWDisney / Marvel

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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